University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Joseph J. Zilber School of Public Health, 1240 North 10th Street, Milwaukee, WI, 53205, USA; Medical College of Wisconsin, Institute for Health and Equity, 8701 Watertown Plank, Milwaukee, WI, 53226, USA; National Center for State Courts, 300 Newport Avenue, Williamsburg, VA, 23185, USA.
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Joseph J. Zilber School of Public Health, 1240 North 10th Street, Milwaukee, WI, 53205, USA.
Environ Res. 2020 Jan;180:108822. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108822. Epub 2019 Oct 15.
Childhood lead exposure impairs future decision-making and may influence criminal behavior, but its role in future firearm violence is unclear. Using public health, education, and criminal justice datasets linked at the individual level, we studied a population-based cohort of all persons born between June 1, 1986 and December 31, 2003 with a valid blood lead test before age 6 years and stable Milwaukee residency (n = 89,129). We estimated associations with firearm violence perpetration (n = 553) and victimization (n = 983) using logistic regression, adjusting for temporal trends, child sex, race, and neighborhood socioeconomic status. Increasing risks for firearm violence perpetration and victimization were found in each higher category of blood lead compared to the lowest, after adjusting for confounding. For perpetration, risk ratios (RR) for increasing comparisons of mean blood lead in categories of ≥5 < 10, ≥10 < 20, and ≥20 μg/dL compared to persons with mean blood lead < 5 μg/dL, were: RR 2.3 (95% CI 1.6, 3.3), RR 2.5 (95% CI 1.7, 3.9), and RR 2.8 (95% CI 1.8, 4.4). For victimization, the same increasing categoric comparisons were: RR 1.8 (95% CI 1.4, 2.3), RR 2.4 (95% CI 1.8, 3.2), RR 3.3 (95% CI 2.4, 4.5). The proportion of firearm violence attributable to blood lead ≥5 μg/dL was 56% for perpetration and 51% for victimization. In Milwaukee, during a period of high lead exposures, childhood levels may have substantially contributed to adult firearm violence. While we cannot definitively conclude causality, the possibility that over half of firearm violence among this sample might be due to lead exposure suggests the potential importance of lead exposure reduction in firearm violence prevention efforts.
儿童期铅暴露会损害未来的决策能力，并可能影响犯罪行为，但它在未来枪支暴力中的作用尚不清楚。我们使用公共卫生、教育和刑事司法数据集，在个体层面进行了链接，研究了一个基于人群的队列，队列中的所有个体均于 1986 年 6 月 1 日至 2003 年 12 月 31 日期间出生，在 6 岁之前进行了有效的血铅检测，且密尔沃基的居住情况稳定（n=89129）。我们使用逻辑回归估计了与枪支暴力实施（n=553）和受害（n=983）的关联，调整了时间趋势、儿童性别、种族和社区社会经济地位。在调整混杂因素后，与最低血铅类别相比，每升高一个血铅类别，枪支暴力实施和受害的风险均增加。对于实施，与血铅<5μg/dL 的个体相比，在血铅类别中，比较均值血铅升高的风险比（RR）为：RR 2.3（95%CI 1.6，3.3），RR 2.5（95%CI 1.7，3.9），RR 2.8（95%CI 1.8，4.4）。对于受害，同样的升高分类比较为：RR 1.8（95%CI 1.4，2.3），RR 2.4（95%CI 1.8，3.2），RR 3.3（95%CI 2.4，4.5）。归因于血铅≥5μg/dL 的枪支暴力比例为实施 56%，受害 51%。在密尔沃基，在高铅暴露时期，儿童时期的血铅水平可能对成人枪支暴力产生了重大影响。虽然我们不能确定地得出因果关系，但在这个样本中，超过一半的枪支暴力可能是由于铅暴露造成的，这表明在枪支暴力预防工作中减少铅暴露的潜在重要性。
