Yoshikura Hiroshi
National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
Jpn J Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 24;73(2):102-110. doi: 10.7883/yoken.JJID.2019.247. Epub 2019 Oct 31.
The annual number of outbreaks of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Salmonella food poisoning and that of patients in Japan, from 2000 to 2018, decreased exponentially even though the size of the individual outbreaks (the number of patients per outbreak) tended to become larger. For food poisonings caused by Campylobacter, the annual number of outbreaks increased exponentially while outbreak size became smaller and the annual number of patients remained almost unchanged. For food poisoning caused by norovirus, both the number of outbreaks and that of patients remained high throughout. Over time, the geographical and seasonal distribution of food poisonings became narrower for Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Salmonella, while they became wider for Campylobacter and norovirus. Further analyses using the attack rate-patient number plots suggested that the number of the outbreaks was determined mainly by the levels of microbial contamination of foods before they were brought into the facilities for consumption.
2000年至2018年期间,日本副溶血性弧菌和沙门氏菌食物中毒的年暴发次数及患者人数呈指数下降,尽管单次暴发规模(每次暴发的患者人数)趋于增大。对于弯曲杆菌引起的食物中毒,年暴发次数呈指数增加,而暴发规模变小,年患者人数几乎保持不变。对于诺如病毒引起的食物中毒,暴发次数和患者人数一直居高不下。随着时间的推移,副溶血性弧菌和沙门氏菌食物中毒的地理和季节分布变窄,而弯曲杆菌和诺如病毒的分布变宽。使用发病率-患者人数图进行的进一步分析表明,暴发次数主要由食品在进入消费场所之前的微生物污染水平决定。