Hawton K, Fagg J
University Department of Psychiatry, Warneford Hospital, Oxford.
Br J Psychiatry. 1988 Mar;152:359-66. doi: 10.1192/bjp.152.3.359.
The number of deaths in a large series of suicide attempters followed up after their attempts was 3.3 times greater than expected. Suicide or probable suicide occurred in 2.8% by the end of the eighth year of follow-up, the rate of suicidal deaths being 26.9 times the expected rate. The highest risk of suicide was during the first 3 years, especially in the first 6 months, following an attempt. Factors identified at the time of the attempts which were associated with suicide risk included: being male, advancing age (females only), psychiatric disorder (especially schizophrenia), long-term use of hypnotics, poor physical health, and repeat attempts. Recent disruption of a relationship with a partner and major rows rarely preceded the attempts of those who later killed themselves. Factors predicting long-term risk of suicide also predicted short-term risk. There were more than double the expected number of deaths from natural causes, the excess being greatest in females. Markedly high death rates were found for endocrine, circulatory and respiratory diseases, and accidents.
在一系列自杀未遂者自杀未遂后进行随访，其死亡人数比预期高3.3倍。随访至第八年末，自杀或疑似自杀发生率为2.8%，自杀死亡发生率为预期发生率的26.9倍。自杀风险最高的时期是在自杀未遂后的头3年，尤其是头6个月。自杀未遂时确定的与自杀风险相关的因素包括：男性、年龄增长（仅女性）、精神障碍（尤其是精神分裂症）、长期使用催眠药、身体健康状况差以及多次自杀未遂。近期与伴侣关系破裂和激烈争吵在后来自杀者的自杀未遂行为之前很少出现。预测自杀长期风险的因素也能预测短期风险。自然原因导致的死亡人数比预期多一倍以上，女性的超额死亡人数最多。在内分泌、循环和呼吸系统疾病以及事故方面发现了明显较高的死亡率。
