Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York , New York , New York 10031 , United States.
Energy Analysis and Decision Support , National Renewable Energy Laboratory , 15013 Denver West Parkway, RSF 300 , Golden , Colorado 80401 , United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2019 Dec 3;53(23):14029-14040. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.9b03037. Epub 2019 Nov 20.
Future climate-water conditions are anticipated to increase electricity demand, reduce transmission capacity, and limit power production. Yet, typical electricity capacity expansion planning does not consider climate-water constraints. We project four alternative U.S. power system configurations using an iterative modeling and data exchange platform that integrates climate-driven hydrological, thermal power plant, and capacity expansion models. Through a comparison with traditional modeling approaches, we show that this novel approach provides greater confidence in electricity capacity projections by incorporating feasibility checks that adjust infrastructure development to reach grid reliability thresholds under climate-water constraints. Initial projections without climate-water impacts on electricity generation show future power systems become less vulnerable, independent of climate-water adaptation, as economic drivers increase renewable and natural gas-based capacity, while water-intensive coal and nuclear plants retire. However, power systems may face reliability challenges without climate-water adaptation, revealing the significance of incorporating climate-water impacts into power system planning. Climate-adjusted (Iterative approach) projections require a 5.3-12.0% increase in national-level capacity, relative to Initial projections, leading to an additional $125-143 billion (5.0-7.0%) in infrastructure costs. Variable renewable and natural gas technologies account for nearly all the additional capacity and, together with regional trade-offs in electricity generation, enhance grid performance to reach reliability thresholds. These adaptation transitions also lower water use and emissions, contributing to climate change mitigation, and highlight the trade-offs and impacts of both near and long-term electricity generation planning decisions.
未来的气候-水资源条件预计将增加电力需求，降低输电能力，并限制电力生产。然而，典型的电力容量扩充规划并未考虑气候-水资源的限制。我们使用一种迭代建模和数据交换平台来预测四种替代的美国电力系统配置，该平台集成了气候驱动的水文、火力发电厂和容量扩充模型。通过与传统建模方法的比较，我们表明，这种新方法通过调整基础设施的发展，使其在气候-水资源限制下达到电网可靠性阈值，从而在进行可行性检查，从而提供了对电力容量预测更大的信心。初始的不考虑气候-水资源对发电影响的预测显示，未来的电力系统在不适应气候-水资源的情况下变得不那么脆弱，这是由于经济驱动因素增加了可再生能源和天然气基容量，同时耗水较多的煤炭和核能发电厂退役。然而，如果不适应气候-水资源，电力系统可能会面临可靠性挑战，这表明将气候-水资源影响纳入电力系统规划的重要性。经过气候调整（迭代方法）的预测要求相对于初始预测，全国范围内的容量增加 5.3-12.0%，这导致基础设施成本增加 1250-1430 亿美元（5.0-7.0%）。可变可再生能源和天然气技术几乎占所有额外的容量，以及在区域发电方面的权衡取舍，增强了电网性能，以达到可靠性阈值。这些适应转型还降低了水的使用和排放，有助于减缓气候变化，并突出了近期和长期发电规划决策的权衡和影响。
