Hayes R J
Tropical Epidemiology Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, U.K.
Stat Med. 1988 Sep;7(9):915-27. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780070903.
Statistical analysis of whether the change in a variable depends on its initial value, in clinical trials and other studies, is complicated by the phenomenon of regression to the mean. We review this problem and examine some approaches for handling it. MacGregor's log-log plot fails to correct for the regression effect, while Oldham's method of plotting the change against the average of initial and final values is shown to give misleading results when the effect of treatment varies between subjects, or when subjects are selected for study if their initial observations fall above or below a specified cut-off point. These results are illustrated by computer simulations. We prefer the use of Blomqvist's method of correcting the association between change and initial value to allow for the regression effect.
在临床试验和其他研究中，对变量变化是否取决于其初始值进行统计分析时，均值回归现象会使问题变得复杂。我们回顾了这个问题并研究了一些处理方法。麦格雷戈的双对数图未能校正回归效应，而奥尔德姆将变化值相对于初始值和最终值的平均值作图的方法表明，当治疗效果在不同受试者之间存在差异，或者当根据初始观察值高于或低于指定临界点来选择受试者进行研究时，会得出误导性结果。计算机模拟说明了这些结果。我们更倾向于使用布洛姆奎斯特校正变化值与初始值之间关联以考虑回归效应的方法。
