Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy.
European Centre for Living Technology (ECLT), Calle Crosera, Dorsoduro 3911, 30123 Venice, Italy; Department of Management, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Cannaregio 873, 30121 Venezia, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Feb 10;703:134972. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134972. Epub 2019 Nov 2.
Oceans are changing faster than even observed before. Unprecedented climate variability is interacting with long-term trends, all against a backdrop of rising anthropogenic use of marine space. The growth of maritime activities is taking place without the full understanding of complex interactions between natural and human-induced changes, leading to a progressive decline of biodiversity and degradation of marine ecosystems. Against this complex interplay, marine managers and policy makers are increasingly calling for new approaches and tools allowing a multi-scenario assessment of environmental impacts arising from the complex interaction between natural and anthropogenic drivers, also in consideration of multiple marine plans objectives. Responding to this need, for the Adriatic Sea we developed a GIS-based Bayesian Network to evaluate the probability (and related uncertainty) of cumulative impacts under four 'what-if' scenarios representing different marine management options and climate conditions. We addressed issues concerning consequences of potential planning measures, as well as management programmes required to achieve environmental status targets, as required by relevant EU acquis. Results from the scenario analysis highlighted that an integrated approach to maritime spatial planning is required, combining more sustainable management options of marine spaces and resources with climate adaptation strategies. This approach to planning would allow to reduce human pressures on the marine environment and rise resilience of natural ecosystems to climate and human-induced disturbances, which would result in an overall decrease of cumulative impacts.
海洋的变化速度甚至比以往观测到的还要快。前所未有的气候多变性正在与长期趋势相互作用，所有这些都发生在人类对海洋空间的使用不断增加的背景下。海洋活动的增长是在对自然和人为引起的变化之间复杂相互作用没有充分了解的情况下发生的，这导致生物多样性逐渐减少，海洋生态系统退化。在这种复杂的相互作用下，海洋管理者和政策制定者越来越呼吁采用新的方法和工具，以便在自然和人为驱动因素之间复杂相互作用的基础上，对环境影响进行多情景评估，同时还要考虑多个海洋规划目标。针对这一需求，我们针对亚得里亚海开发了一个基于 GIS 的贝叶斯网络，以评估在四个“假设”情景下（代表不同的海洋管理方案和气候条件）累积影响的概率（及其相关不确定性）。我们解决了与潜在规划措施的后果以及实现环境状况目标所需的管理方案有关的问题，这是相关欧盟法规所要求的。情景分析的结果表明，需要采用综合的海洋空间规划方法，将海洋空间和资源的更可持续管理方案与气候适应战略相结合。这种规划方法将有助于减少人类对海洋环境的压力，并提高自然生态系统对气候和人为干扰的恢复能力，从而整体上减少累积影响。
