Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, 30170 Venezia-Mestre, Italy; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Fondazione CMCC), c/o via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce, Italy.
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Via Torino 155, 30170 Venezia-Mestre, Italy; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Fondazione CMCC), c/o via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Mar 15;618:1008-1023. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.076. Epub 2017 Oct 25.
In the last few decades the health of marine ecosystems has been progressively endangered by the anthropogenic presence. Natural and human-made pressures, as well as climate change effects, are posing increasing threats on marine areas, triggering alteration of biological, chemical and physical processes. Planning of marine areas has become a challenge for decision makers involved in the design of sustainable management options. In order to address threats posed by climate drivers in combination with local to regional anthropogenic pressures affecting marine ecosystems and activities, a multi-hazard assessment methodology was developed and applied to the Adriatic Sea for the reference scenario 2000-2015. Through a four-stages process based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk the methodology allows a semi-quantitative evaluation of the relative risk from anthropogenic and natural sources to multiple endpoints, thus supporting the identification and ranking of areas and targets more likely to be at risk. Resulting output showed that the higher relative hazard scores are linked to exogenic pressures (e.g. sea surface temperature variation) while the lower ones resulted from endogenic and more localized stressors (e.g. abrasion, nutrient input). Relatively very high scores were observed for vulnerability over the whole case study for almost all the considered pressures, showing seagrasses meadows, maërl and coral beds as the most susceptible targets. The approach outlined in this study provides planners and decision makers a quick-screening tool to evaluate progress towards attaining a good environmental status and to identify marine areas where management actions and adaptation strategies would be best targeted. Moreover, by focusing on risks induced by land-based drivers, resulting output can support the design of infrastructures for reducing pressures on the sea, contributing to improve the land-sea interface management.
在过去的几十年中，海洋生态系统的健康状况逐渐受到人为活动的威胁。自然和人为压力以及气候变化的影响，对海洋区域构成了越来越多的威胁，引发了生物、化学和物理过程的改变。规划海洋区域已成为决策者面临的挑战，他们需要设计可持续的管理方案。为了应对由气候驱动因素与影响海洋生态系统和活动的局部到区域人为压力相结合而构成的威胁，开发了一种多灾害评估方法，并将其应用于亚得里亚海 2000-2015 年的参考情景。通过基于危害、暴露、脆弱性和风险的连续分析的四阶段过程，该方法允许对来自人为和自然源的多种终点的相对风险进行半定量评估，从而支持识别和对更可能面临风险的区域和目标进行排序。结果表明，较高的相对危害分数与外源压力（例如海面温度变化）有关，而较低的分数则与内源和更局部的压力源有关（例如磨损、营养物输入）。在整个案例研究中，几乎所有考虑的压力都对脆弱性产生了相对非常高的分数，表明海草草甸、贻贝壳和珊瑚床是最易受影响的目标。本研究中概述的方法为规划者和决策者提供了一种快速筛选工具，以评估实现良好环境状况的进展情况，并确定需要采取管理行动和适应策略的海洋区域。此外，通过关注陆基驱动因素引起的风险，结果输出可以支持减少对海洋压力的基础设施的设计，有助于改善陆海界面的管理。
