Furlan Elisa, Torresan Silvia, Critto Andrea, Lovato Tomas, Solidoro Cosimo, Lazzari Paolo, Marcomini Antonio
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy.
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jun 20;670:379-397. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.021. Epub 2019 Mar 3.
Assessing and managing cumulative impacts produced by interactive anthropogenic and natural drivers is a major challenge to achieve the sustainable use of marine spaces in line with the objectives of relevant EU acquis. However, the complexity of the marine environment and the uncertainty linked to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, represent major obstacles for understanding the multiplicity of impacts on the marine ecosystems and to identify appropriate management strategies to be implemented. Going beyond the traditional additive approach for cumulative impact appraisal, the Cumulative Impact Index (CI-Index) proposed in this paper applies advanced Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques to spatially model relationships between interactive climate and anthropogenic pressures, the environmental exposure and vulnerability patterns and the potential cumulative impacts for the marine ecosystems at risk. The assessment was performed based on spatial data characterizing location and vulnerability of 5 relevant marine targets (e.g. seagrasses and coral beds), and the distribution of 17 human activities (e.g. trawling, maritime traffic) during a reference scenario 2000-2015. Moreover, projections for selected physical and biogeochemical parameters (temperature and chlorophyll 'a') for the 2035-2050 timeframe under RCP8.5 scenario, were integrated in the assessment to evaluate index variations due to changing climate conditions. The application of the CI-Index in the Adriatic Sea, showed higher cumulative impacts in the Northern part of the basin and along the Italian continental shelf, where the high concentration of human activities, the seawater temperature conditions and the presence of vulnerable benthic habitats, contribute to increase the overall impact estimate. Moreover, the CI-Index allowed understanding which are the phenomena contributing to synergic pressures creating potential pathways of environmental disturbance for marine ecosystems. Finally, the application in the Adriatic case showed how the output of the CI-Index can provide support to evaluate multi-risk scenarios and to drive sustainable maritime spatial planning and management.
根据欧盟相关法律的目标，评估和管理由人为和自然驱动因素相互作用产生的累积影响，是实现海洋空间可持续利用的一项重大挑战。然而，海洋环境的复杂性以及与未来气候和社会经济情景相关的不确定性，是理解对海洋生态系统的多重影响以及确定要实施的适当管理策略的主要障碍。本文提出的累积影响指数（CI-Index）超越了传统的累积影响评估加法方法，应用先进的多标准决策分析技术，对气候与人为压力相互作用、环境暴露和脆弱性模式以及受威胁海洋生态系统的潜在累积影响之间的关系进行空间建模。评估是基于表征5个相关海洋目标（如海藻床和珊瑚礁）的位置和脆弱性的空间数据，以及2000 - 2015年参考情景期间17种人类活动（如拖网捕鱼、海上交通）的分布进行的。此外，还将RCP8.5情景下2035 - 2050年时间段选定的物理和生物地球化学参数（温度和叶绿素“a”）的预测纳入评估，以评估由于气候条件变化导致的指数变化。CI-Index在亚得里亚海的应用表明，该海域北部和意大利大陆架沿线的累积影响较高，那里人类活动高度集中、海水温度条件以及脆弱底栖生境的存在，导致总体影响估计增加。此外，CI-Index有助于了解哪些现象会造成协同压力，从而为海洋生态系统创造潜在的环境干扰途径。最后，在亚得里亚海案例中的应用表明，CI-Index的输出结果如何能够为评估多风险情景以及推动可持续海洋空间规划和管理提供支持。
