Winkelstein W, Wiley J A, Padian N S, Samuel M, Shiboski S, Ascher M S, Levy J A
School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
Am J Public Health. 1988 Nov;78(11):1472-4. doi: 10.2105/ajph.78.11.1472.
The incidence of infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been monitored since 1984 in an area probability sample of homosexual/bisexual men drawn from a six-kilometer square area of San Francisco where the epidemic of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) has been most severe. Annualized HIV seroconversion rates in previously uninfected cohort members have declined by 88 per cent from 5.9 per cent during the first six months of 1985 to 0.7 per cent during the last six months of 1987. Concurrent declines of approximately 80 per cent in the prevalence of sexual behaviors associated with HIV transmission were also observed in the sample.
自1984年以来，一直在对从旧金山一个6平方公里区域抽取的同性恋/双性恋男性的区域概率样本中的人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）感染率进行监测，该区域是获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS）流行最为严重的地区。在之前未感染的队列成员中，HIV血清转化率从1985年上半年的5.9%下降至1987年下半年的0.7%，年化下降率达88%。在该样本中还观察到，与HIV传播相关的性行为发生率也同时下降了约80%。
