Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Bhopal, 462066, India.
Earth Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Pune, Pune, 411008, India.
Sci Rep. 2019 Dec 3;9(1):18192. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-54553-9.
Glaciers in the Himalaya-Karakoram (HK) are critical for ensuring water-security of a large fraction of world's population that is vulnerable to climate impacts. However, the sensitivity of HK glaciers to changes in meteorological forcing remains largely unknown. We analyzed modelled interannual variability of mass balance (MB) that is validated against available observations, to quantify the sensitivity of MB to meteorological factors over the HK. Within the model, snowfall variability (0.06 m/yr) explains ~60% of the MB variability (0.28 m/yr), implying a sensitivity of MB on snowfall to the tune of several hundreds of percent. This stunningly high sensitivity of MB to snowfall offers crucial insights into the mechanism of the recent divergent glacier response over the HK. Our findings underscore the need for sustained measurements and model representations of the spatiotemporal variability of snowfall, one of the least-studied factors over the glacierized HK, for capturing the large-scale and yet region-specific glacier changes taking place over the HK.
喜马拉雅-喀喇昆仑（HK）的冰川对于保障世界上很大一部分易受气候影响的人口的水安全至关重要。然而，HK 冰川对气象强迫变化的敏感性在很大程度上仍然未知。我们分析了经过验证的对现有观测的模拟多年际质量平衡（MB）变化，以量化 MB 对 HK 地区气象因素的敏感性。在模型中，降雪变化（0.06 m/yr）解释了 MB 变化的约 60%（0.28 m/yr），这意味着 MB 对降雪的敏感性在几百%左右。MB 对降雪的这种惊人的高敏感性为理解 HK 地区最近冰川反应的分歧机制提供了重要的见解。我们的研究结果强调了需要对降雪的时空变化进行持续的测量和建模，这是 HK 冰川地区研究最少的因素之一，以捕捉在 HK 地区发生的大规模且具有区域特异性的冰川变化。
