Institut für Geographie, Universität Innsbruck, Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Nov 23;107(47):20223-7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1008162107. Epub 2010 Nov 8.
Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins.
尽管可靠的数据常常缺失,但由于正在发生的全球气候变化的影响,冰川退缩导致的河流系统水资源可用性的严重恶化是普遍预期的。我们估计季节性延迟的冰川融水对大型河流系统总水资源可用性的贡献潜力。我们发现,在河流进入季节性干旱地区的地方,季节性延迟的冰川贡献最大,而在季风气候控制的流域低地则可以忽略不计。通过比较每个流域内不同海拔带的月冰川融水贡献与人口密度,我们证明,在大多数流域中,人类对冰川融水的强烈依赖并不与最高人口密度相吻合。