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2000 - 2016年亚洲高山冰川物质平衡的空间分辨率估算

A spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances, 2000-2016.

作者信息

Brun Fanny, Berthier Etienne, Wagnon Patrick, Kääb Andreas, Treichler Désirée

机构信息

Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, France.

LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France.

出版信息

Nat Geosci. 2017 Sep;10(9):668-673. doi: 10.1038/NGEO2999. Epub 2017 Aug 7.

Abstract

High Mountain Asia hosts the largest glacier concentration outside the polar regions. These glaciers are important contributors to streamflow in one of the most populated areas of the world. Past studies have used methods that can only provide regionally-averaged glacier mass balances to assess the High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to rivers and sea level rise. Here we compute the mass balance for about 92 % of the glacierized area of High Mountain Asia using time series of digital elevation models derived from satellite stereo-imagery. We calculate an average region-wide mass balance of -16.3 ± 3.5 Gt yr (-0.18 ± 0.04 m w.e. yr) between 2000 and 2016, which is less negative than most previous estimates. Region-wide mass balances vary from -4.0 ± 1.5 Gt yr (-0.62 ± 0.23 m w.e. yr) in Nyainqentanglha to +1.4 ± 0.8 Gt yr (+0.14 ± 0.08 m w.e. yr) in Kunlun, with large intra-regional variability of individual glacier mass balances (standard deviation within a region ˜0.20 m w.e. yr). Specifically, our results shed light on the Nyainqentanglha and Pamir glacier mass changes, for which contradictory estimates exist in the literature. They provide crucial information for the calibration of the models used for projections of future glacier response to climatic changes, models that presently do not capture the pattern, magnitude and intra-regional variability of glacier changes in High Mountain Asia.

摘要

亚洲高山地区拥有极地以外最大的冰川群。这些冰川是世界上人口最密集地区之一河流水流的重要贡献者。过去的研究使用的方法只能提供区域平均冰川物质平衡,以评估亚洲高山地区冰川对河流和海平面上升的贡献。在这里,我们利用从卫星立体图像得出的数字高程模型时间序列,计算了亚洲高山地区约92%的冰川覆盖面积的物质平衡。我们计算出2000年至2016年期间区域范围内的平均物质平衡为-16.3±3.5亿吨/年(-0.18±0.04米水当量/年),这比大多数先前的估计值负性要小。区域范围内的物质平衡从念青唐古拉山的-4.0±1.5亿吨/年(-0.62±0.23米水当量/年)到昆仑山的+1.4±0.8亿吨/年(+0.14±0.08米水当量/年)不等,各冰川的物质平衡在区域内变化很大(区域内标准差约为0.20米水当量/年)。具体而言,我们的结果揭示了念青唐古拉山和帕米尔冰川的物质变化,文献中对这些变化存在相互矛盾的估计。它们为校准用于预测未来冰川对气候变化响应的模型提供了关键信息,目前这些模型无法捕捉亚洲高山地区冰川变化的模式、幅度和区域内变异性。

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