Girasek Deborah C
Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda, MD 20814 USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2019 Nov 28;6:46. doi: 10.1186/s40621-019-0222-y. eCollection 2019.
Between 1972 and 2015, 56 visitors to the two national parks that border the Potomac River Gorge experienced fatal drowning. In 2016, the George Washington Memorial Parkway (GWMP), and the Chesapeake and Ohio National Historical Park (CHOH) partnered with a researcher to see if enhancement of their risk communication strategies could reduce behaviors that contribute to these deaths.
An experimental sign, which informed visitors that water entry was illegal and could result in a fine exceeding $200 was developed, and displayed on alternating weekend days from July 30 to September 11, 2016. Those signs were displayed at each park's entrance, on restroom doors, at trailheads, and at both shorelines of the Potomac. At other times the experimental signs were covered, but a standard safety sign was always present. Cameras were used to record water entries.
Cameras captured 1441 images. Approximately 2% of the images in CHOH and 1% of the images in GWMP showed a visitor in the water Our multivariate analysis revealed that air temperature, beach count, and sign condition were significantly associated with water entry. When our experimental sign was displayed, the odds of an image showing someone in the water was reduced by 63%.
A sign alerting park visitors to the fact that water entry is illegal, and could potentially result in a considerable fine, was associated with significantly reduced risk-taking. While intuitive, this finding is a reminder to consider whether warnings that focus on non-health consequences might be more salient to at-risk populations.
1972年至2015年间，波托马克河峡谷两侧两个国家公园的56名游客遭遇致命溺水事故。2016年，乔治·华盛顿纪念公园大道（GWMP）和切萨皮克与俄亥俄国家历史公园（CHOH）与一名研究人员合作，探讨加强风险沟通策略是否能减少导致这些死亡的行为。
制作了一个实验性标识牌，告知游客进入水域是违法的，可能会被处以超过200美元的罚款，并于2016年7月30日至9月11日的交替周末展示。这些标识牌展示在每个公园的入口、卫生间门、步道起点以及波托马克河两岸。在其他时间，实验性标识牌被覆盖，但始终会有一个标准的安全标识牌。使用摄像头记录进入水域的情况。
摄像头捕捉到1441张图像。CHOH约2%的图像和GWMP约1%的图像显示有游客在水中。我们的多变量分析显示，气温、海滩数量和标识牌状况与进入水域显著相关。当展示我们的实验性标识牌时，图像中出现有人在水中的几率降低了63%。
一个提醒公园游客进入水域违法且可能会被处以高额罚款的标识牌，与显著降低冒险行为相关。虽然这一发现看似直观，但它提醒我们思考，关注非健康后果的警告对高危人群是否可能更具显著性。
