Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia.
Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia.
JAMA Netw Open. 2019 Dec 2;2(12):e1916921. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.16921.
IMPORTANCE: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most common complications after noncardiac surgery. Yet current postoperative AKI risk stratification models have substantial limitations, such as limited use of perioperative data. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether adding preoperative and intraoperative data is associated with improved prediction of noncardiac postoperative AKI. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A prognostic study using logistic regression with elastic net selection, gradient boosting machine (GBM), and random forest approaches was conducted at 4 tertiary academic hospitals in the United States. A total of 42 615 hospitalized adults with serum creatinine measurements who underwent major noncardiac surgery between January 1, 2014, and April 30, 2018, were included in the study. Serum creatinine measurements from 365 days before and 7 days after surgery were used in this study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Postoperative AKI (defined by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes within 7 days after surgery) was the primary outcome. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess discrimination. RESULTS: Among 42 615 patients who underwent noncardiac surgery, the mean (SD) age was 57.9 (15.7) years, 23 943 (56.2%) were women, 27 857 (65.4%) were white, and the most frequent surgery types were orthopedic (15 718 [36.9%]), general (8808 [20.7%]), and neurologic (6564 [15.4%]). The rate of postoperative AKI was 10.1% (n = 4318). The progressive addition of clinical data improved model performance across all modeling approaches, with GBM providing the highest discrimination by AUC. In GBM models, the AUC increased from 0.712 (95% CI, 0.694-0.731) using prehospitalization variables to 0.804 (95% CI, 0.788-0.819) using preoperative variables (inclusive of prehospitalization variables) (P < .001 for AUC comparison). The AUC further increased to 0.817 (95% CI, 0.802-0.832) when adding intraoperative variables (P < .001 for comparison vs model using preoperative variables). However, the statistically significant improvements in discrimination did not appear to be clinically significant. In particular, the AKI rate among patients classified as high risk improved from 29.1% to 30.0%, a net of 15 patients were appropriately reclassified as high risk, and an additional 15 patients were appropriately reclassified as low risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of the study suggest that electronic health record data may be used to accurately stratify patients at risk of perioperative AKI, but the modest improvements from adding intraoperative data should be weighed against challenges in using intraoperative data.
重要性:急性肾损伤(AKI)是非心脏手术后最常见的并发症之一。然而,目前的术后 AKI 风险分层模型存在很大的局限性,例如对围手术期数据的使用有限。 目的:研究术前和术中数据的添加是否与非心脏手术后 AKI 的预测改善相关。 设计、设置和参与者:在美国的 4 家三级学术医院进行了一项使用逻辑回归与弹性网络选择、梯度提升机(GBM)和随机森林方法的预后研究。共有 42615 名在 2014 年 1 月 1 日至 2018 年 4 月 30 日期间接受过主要非心脏手术的住院成人患者被纳入本研究。本研究使用了手术前 365 天和手术后 7 天的血清肌酐测量值。 主要结果和措施:术后 AKI(定义为手术后 7 天内的肾脏病改善全球结果)是主要结果。使用接受者操作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)来评估区分度。 结果:在接受非心脏手术的 42615 名患者中,平均(SD)年龄为 57.9(15.7)岁,23943 名(56.2%)为女性,27857 名(65.4%)为白人,最常见的手术类型为骨科(15718 [36.9%])、普通(8808 [20.7%])和神经科(6564 [15.4%])。术后 AKI 的发生率为 10.1%(n=4318)。随着临床数据的逐步增加,所有建模方法的模型性能都有所提高,GBM 通过 AUC 提供了最高的区分度。在 GBM 模型中,AUC 从使用住院前变量的 0.712(95%CI,0.694-0.731)增加到使用术前变量的 0.804(95%CI,0.788-0.819)(AUC 比较的 P<.001)。当添加术中变量时,AUC 进一步增加到 0.817(95%CI,0.802-0.832)(与使用术前变量的模型相比,P<.001)。然而,区分度的统计学显著提高似乎并没有带来临床意义上的显著改善。特别是,被归类为高危的患者的 AKI 发生率从 29.1%提高到 30.0%,净增加了 15 名患者被恰当地归类为高危,另外 15 名患者被恰当地归类为低危。 结论和相关性:研究结果表明,电子健康记录数据可用于准确分层围手术期 AKI 风险患者,但应权衡术中数据的使用挑战,与添加术中数据所带来的适度改善相平衡。
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