Jeong Min-Su, Choi Chang-Young, Kim Hankyu, Lee Woo-Shin
Department of Forest Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Anim Cells Syst (Seoul). 2019 Oct 10;23(6):422-432. doi: 10.1080/19768354.2019.1675759. eCollection 2019.
Phenological shifts of plants and animals due to climate change can vary among regions and species, requiring study of local ecosystems to understand specific impacts. The reproductive timing of insectivorous songbirds in temperate forests is tightly synchronized with peak prey abundance, and thus they can be susceptible to such shift in timing. We aimed to investigate the effect of future climate change on the egg-laying phenology of the Varied Tit (), which is common and widely distributed in South Korean forests. We developed the predictive model by investigating their egg-laying dates in response to spring temperatures along geographical gradients, and our model indicated that the tits lay eggs earlier when the average of daily mean and daily maximum temperatures rise. We predicted future shifts in egg-laying dates based on the most recent climate change model published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under a scenario with no climate change mitigation and under a scenario with moderate mitigation. Under this outcome, this species might be unable to adapt to rapid climate change due to asynchrony with prey species during the reproductive period. If no mitigation is undertaken, our model predicts that egg-laying dates will be advanced by more than 10 days compared to the present in 83.58% of South Korea. However, even moderate mitigation will arrest this phenomenon and maintain present egg-laying dates. These results demonstrate the first quantitative assessment for the effect of warming temperatures on the phenological response of insectivorous songbirds in South Korea.
由于气候变化导致的动植物物候变化在不同地区和物种间存在差异，这就需要对当地生态系统进行研究，以了解具体影响。温带森林中食虫鸣禽的繁殖时间与猎物丰度高峰期紧密同步，因此它们可能容易受到这种时间变化的影响。我们旨在研究未来气候变化对在韩国森林中常见且分布广泛的杂色山雀产卵物候的影响。我们通过研究其沿地理梯度对春季温度的产卵日期来建立预测模型，我们的模型表明，当日平均温度和日最高温度的平均值上升时，山雀会更早产卵。我们根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布的最新气候变化模型，在不采取气候变化缓解措施的情景和适度缓解措施的情景下，预测了未来产卵日期的变化。在此结果下，由于繁殖期与猎物物种不同步，该物种可能无法适应快速的气候变化。如果不采取缓解措施，我们的模型预测，在韩国83.58%的地区，与目前相比，产卵日期将提前超过10天。然而，即使是适度的缓解措施也将阻止这一现象，并维持目前的产卵日期。这些结果首次定量评估了气温升高对韩国食虫鸣禽物候反应的影响。
