Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China.
Department of Atmospheric and Earth Science, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35805, USA.
Sci Adv. 2019 Dec 18;5(12):eaay3452. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aay3452. eCollection 2019 Dec.
Exposure to extreme temperatures is one primary cause of weather-related human mortality and morbidity. Global climate change raises the concern of public health under future extreme events, yet spatiotemporal population dynamics have been long overlooked in health risk assessments. Here, we show that the diurnal intra-urban movement alters residents' exposure to extreme temperatures during cold and heat waves. To do so, we incorporate weather simulations with commute-adjusted population profiles over 16 major U.S. metropolitan areas. Urban residents' exposure to heat waves is intensified by 1.9° ± 0.7°C (mean ± SD among cities), and their exposure to cold waves is attenuated by 0.6° ± 0.8°C. The higher than expected exposure to heat waves significantly correlates with the spatial temperature variability and requires serious attention. The essential role of population dynamics should be emphasized in temperature-related climate adaptation strategies for effective and successful interventions.
暴露在极端温度下是导致与天气相关的人类死亡和发病的一个主要原因。全球气候变化引发了人们对未来极端事件下公共健康的担忧,但在健康风险评估中,时空人口动态长期以来一直被忽视。在这里,我们表明,在寒冷和热浪期间,白天的城市内部流动改变了居民的暴露于极端温度的情况。为此,我们将天气模拟与 16 个美国主要大都市区的通勤调整后的人口分布结合起来。城市居民遭遇热浪的暴露程度加剧了 1.9°C ± 0.7°C(各城市之间的平均值 ± SD),而遭遇寒潮的暴露程度降低了 0.6°C ± 0.8°C。对热浪的暴露程度高于预期,这与空间温度变化显著相关,需要引起重视。在与温度相关的气候适应策略中,人口动态的重要作用应得到强调,以实现有效和成功的干预。