Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; China Carbon Market Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; China Carbon Market Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Mar 15;258:109997. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109997. Epub 2020 Jan 7.
China's economic development has entered a "new normal" stage where economic growth has slowed down. In this context, China's local authorities and industry circles are particularly concerned about the impact of emissions trading scheme (ETS), China's first major market-based approach to control greenhouse gas emissions, on competitiveness. This paper contributes to the thin empirical studies on this issue from the perspective of China's provincial industrial sub-sectors. We divide the industry of each province into 37 sub-sectors and screen the actual industrial sub-sector coverage of China's pilot ETSs. Taking advantage of the rich information of sub-sector characteristics and the longitudinal structure of our dataset over 2005-2015, we use a combination of propensity score matching technique and difference-in-difference models to analyze the impact of China's pilot ETSs on gross industrial output value (GIOV) and employment. Empirical results indicate that China's pilot ETSs have exerted a negative impact on the GIOV, and production cut is still the major approach to achieve carbon emission reductions. We also find China's pilot ETSs have led to a significant decrease in employment of the covered industrial sub-sectors. Several robustness checks confirm our findings. Further, our discussions suggest that in the short term, China's pilot ETSs have not promoted the "decoupling" of carbon emissions and economic outputs in industrial sub-sectors. While achieving carbon emission reductions, the pilot ETSs have failed to avoid a negative impact on competitiveness. Lastly, we suggest that competent authorities should prudently tailor the quota allocation methods according to sectorial conditions and consider setting up compensation measures, and covered enterprises should incorporate low-carbon development concept and address the challenges proactively from the long run.
中国的经济发展已经进入“新常态”阶段，经济增长速度放缓。在此背景下，中国地方政府和产业界尤其关注排放交易体系（ETS）对竞争力的影响。ETS 是中国控制温室气体排放的首个主要市场手段。本文从中国省级产业细分行业的角度，对这一问题的实证研究进行了补充。我们将每个省份的产业划分为 37 个细分行业，并筛选出中国试点 ETS 的实际产业细分行业覆盖范围。利用细分行业特征的丰富信息和我们在 2005-2015 年期间的数据集的纵向结构，我们采用倾向得分匹配技术和双重差分模型的组合来分析中国试点 ETS 对总工业产值（GIOV）和就业的影响。实证结果表明，中国试点 ETS 对 GIOV 产生了负面影响，减产仍然是实现碳排放减排的主要手段。我们还发现，中国试点 ETS 导致了受覆盖的工业细分行业就业的显著下降。几项稳健性检验证实了我们的发现。此外，我们的讨论表明，在短期内，中国试点 ETS 并未促进工业细分行业的碳排放和经济产出“脱钩”。在实现碳排放减排的同时，试点 ETS 未能避免对竞争力产生负面影响。最后，我们建议主管部门根据部门情况谨慎调整配额分配方法，并考虑设立补偿措施，受覆盖企业应从长远角度主动纳入低碳发展理念并应对挑战。
