School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing, China; Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research & School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research & School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China; Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing, China.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Oct 1;271:110975. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110975. Epub 2020 Jun 23.
China has launched pilot carbon emissions permit trading schemes (ETS) in seven regions since 2013/2014 and has established a nationwide ETS in the power industry by the end of 2017. Recent literature has evaluated China's seven pilot regions on design aspects of the ETS, and yet little is known about the potential recovery of economic output loss through introducing the ETS. This study considers the recovery of industrial value added loss and thus measures the abatement cost savings from trading to evaluate the necessity and feasibility of China's pilot ETSs. The analysis develops a parametric and nonparametric combined technique to calculate the opportunity abatement cost savings (i.e., potential abatement cost savings and unrealized abatement cost savings) and marginal abatement cost savings (i.e., changes on carbon shadow prices) in China's pilot ETSs during 2011-2015. It additionally provides an estimation of potential carbon emissions reduction from ETS. Both cross-industrial trading and intertemporal trading are considered, and three simulations, defined as no trading, cross-industrial trading, and cross-industrial and intertemporal trading, are conducted. We found that, i) 1-16% potential abatement cost savings and 2-12% unrealized abatement cost savings would be identified in China's pilot ETS regions. ii) 0.5-33% and 1.6-25% carbon emissions reduction potential would be realized respectively by introducing ETS and eliminating the operational inefficiency of the ETS. iii) Marginal abatement cost savings would both exist in almost all regions if the ETS were implemented and if the ETS were fully operational.
中国自 2013/2014 年以来在七个地区启动了碳排放许可交易试点计划（ETS），并于 2017 年底在电力行业建立了全国性的 ETS。最近的文献对中国七个试点地区的 ETS 设计方面进行了评估，但对于通过引入 ETS 来恢复经济产出损失的潜力知之甚少。本研究考虑了工业增加值损失的恢复，因此衡量了通过交易实现的减排成本节约，以评估中国试点 ETS 的必要性和可行性。该分析采用参数和非参数组合技术来计算机会减排成本节约（即潜在减排成本节约和未实现减排成本节约）和边际减排成本节约（即碳影子价格的变化），并在 2011-2015 年期间评估了中国试点 ETS 的必要性和可行性。它还提供了对 ETS 潜在碳减排量的估计。同时考虑了跨行业交易和跨期交易，并进行了三种模拟，分别定义为无交易、跨行业交易和跨行业与跨期交易。我们发现：
在试点 ETS 地区，潜在减排成本节约 1-16%，未实现减排成本节约 2-12%。
引入 ETS 并消除 ETS 运营效率低下将分别实现 0.5-33%和 1.6-25%的碳减排潜力。
如果实施 ETS 且 ETS 完全运作，几乎所有地区都将存在边际减排成本节约。
