Department of Earth Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul, 04763, South Korea.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Mar;27(9):10039-10054. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-07668-w. Epub 2020 Jan 13.
Our paper examines the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship through a heterogeneous panel analysis of 34 Annex I countries for the 1990 to 2016 period. We confirm the long-run equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions, trade openness, fossil fuel usage, and GDP through the panel cointegration tests that is robust to cross-sectional dependence. Overall, our finding is that the empirical results show no consistent evidence of the EKC hypothesis in Annex I countries via mean group and long-run estimation. Country-specific estimation shows that only 5 of the 34 countries support the EKC hypothesis. From the cointegration test to long-run vector estimation, we indirectly show that fossil fuel usage can distort the EKC results by causing endogeneity, since being strong is related to economic growth. From the synthesized statistics of empirical results, Annex I countries do not follow the EKC relationship. This could imply that because no mitigation has been achieved, climate change can become a much more serious issue, although country-specific results show that mitigation is constantly in progress.
我们的论文通过对 1990 年至 2016 年 34 个附件一国家的异质面板分析，考察了环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）关系。我们通过面板协整检验确认了碳排放、贸易开放度、化石燃料使用和 GDP 之间的长期均衡关系，该检验对横截面相关性具有稳健性。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，通过均值组和长期估计，附件一国家的实证结果没有一致证据支持 EKC 假说。特定国家的估计表明，在 34 个国家中，只有 5 个国家支持 EKC 假说。从协整检验到长期向量估计，我们间接地表明，由于化石燃料的使用与经济增长有关，因此它可能通过引起内生性来扭曲 EKC 结果。从实证结果的综合统计来看，附件一国家不遵循 EKC 关系。这可能意味着，由于没有实现减排，气候变化可能会成为一个更加严重的问题，尽管特定国家的结果表明减排工作正在不断推进。
