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基于成功再通的急性缺血性脑卒中血管内取栓术后死亡率的预测列线图

Nomogram to Predict Mortality of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Ischemic Stroke Despite Successful Recanalization.

机构信息

Department of Neurology Jinling Hospital Medical School of Nanjing University Nanjing China.

Department of Neurology Jinling Hospital Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China.

出版信息

J Am Heart Assoc. 2020 Feb 4;9(3):e014899. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.119.014899. Epub 2020 Jan 24.

Abstract

Background The trajectory of ischemic stroke patients attributable to large vessel occlusion is fundamentally altered by endovascular thrombectomy. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting 3-month mortality risk in patients with ischemic stroke attributed to artery occlusion in anterior circulation who received successful endovascular thrombectomy treatment. Methods and Results Patients with successful endovascular thrombectomy (modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction IIb or III) were enrolled from a multicenter registry as the training cohort. Step-wise logistic regression with Akaike information criterion was utilized to establish the best-fit nomogram. The discriminative value of the nomogram was tested by concordance index. An additional 224 patients from 2 comprehensive stroke centers were prospectively recruited as the test cohort for validating the new nomogram. Altogether, 417 patients were enrolled in the training cohort. Age (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.10), poor pretreatment collateral status (OR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.18-3.85), baseline blood glucose level (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04-1.21), symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (OR, 9.51; 95% CI, 4.54-19.92), and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.12) were associated with mortality and were incorporated in the nomogram. The c-index of the nomogram was 0.835 (95% CI, 0.785-0.885) in the training cohort and 0.758 (95% CI, 0.667-0.849) in the test cohort. Conclusions The nomogram, composed of age, pretreatment collateral status, baseline blood glucose level, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, may predict risk of mortality in patients with ischemic stroke and treated successfully with endovascular thrombectomy.

摘要

背景

血管内血栓切除术改变了大动脉闭塞所致缺血性脑卒中患者的病程。本研究旨在为接受成功血管内血栓切除术治疗的前循环动脉闭塞性缺血性脑卒中患者建立预测 3 个月死亡率的列线图。

方法和结果

本研究纳入了多中心登记处接受成功血管内血栓切除术(改良脑梗死溶栓 IIb 或 III 级)治疗的患者作为训练队列。采用逐步逻辑回归分析和赤池信息量准则(Akaike information criterion)建立最佳拟合列线图。通过一致性指数(concordance index)检验列线图的判别价值。来自 2 家综合卒中中心的 224 例患者前瞻性纳入作为验证新列线图的测试队列。共纳入 417 例患者作为训练队列。年龄(比值比[OR],1.07;95%可信区间[CI],1.03-1.10)、治疗前侧支循环不良(OR,2.13;95%CI,1.18-3.85)、基线血糖水平(OR,1.12;95%CI,1.04-1.21)、症状性颅内出血(OR,9.51;95%CI,4.54-19.92)和基线国立卫生研究院卒中量表评分(OR,1.08;95%CI,1.03-1.12)与死亡率相关,并纳入列线图。该列线图在训练队列中的 C 指数为 0.835(95%CI,0.785-0.885),在测试队列中的 C 指数为 0.758(95%CI,0.667-0.849)。

结论

该列线图由年龄、治疗前侧支循环状态、基线血糖水平、症状性颅内出血和基线国立卫生研究院卒中量表评分组成,可预测接受成功血管内血栓切除术治疗的缺血性卒中患者的死亡风险。

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