Lee Clement, Garbett Andrew, Wilkinson Darren J
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
2Open Lab, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Stat Comput. 2018;28(4):891-904. doi: 10.1007/s11222-017-9770-6. Epub 2017 Aug 2.
A statistical model assuming a preferential attachment network, which is generated by adding nodes sequentially according to a few simple rules, usually describes real-life networks better than a model assuming, for example, a Bernoulli random graph, in which any two nodes have the same probability of being connected, does. Therefore, to study the propagation of "infection" across a social network, we propose a network epidemic model by combining a stochastic epidemic model and a preferential attachment model. A simulation study based on the subsequent Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm reveals an identifiability issue with the model parameters. Finally, the network epidemic model is applied to a set of online commissioning data.
一个假设为优先连接网络的统计模型,它是根据一些简单规则依次添加节点生成的,通常比例如假设为伯努利随机图的模型能更好地描述现实生活中的网络,在伯努利随机图中任意两个节点连接的概率相同。因此,为了研究“感染”在社交网络中的传播,我们通过结合随机流行病模型和优先连接模型提出了一个网络流行病模型。基于后续马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法的模拟研究揭示了模型参数的可识别性问题。最后,将该网络流行病模型应用于一组在线调试数据。