气候变化与传染病：来自高度脆弱国家的证据
Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Evidence from Highly Vulnerable Countries.
作者信息
Anwar Asim, Anwar Sajid, Ayub Muhammad, Nawaz Faisal, Hyder Shabir, Khan Noman, Malik Imran
机构信息
Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Attock Campus, Punjab, Pakistan.
School of Business, University of Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Australia.
出版信息
Iran J Public Health. 2019 Dec;48(12):2187-2195.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Climate change is an alarming challenge for humanity at large due to its mediating role in emergence and spread of infectious diseases like cholera and malaria. This study was conducted to examine the effect of climate change and some socio-economic factors on incidence of infectious diseases.
METHODS
We used country level panel data over the 1990-2017 period using panel ARDL-PMG technique on highly affected countries from climate change.
RESULTS
There is a long run co-integrating relationship among climate change, socio-economic factors and prevalence of infectious diseases. Climate change, as measured by the temperature, is contributing to the spread of infectious diseases.
CONCLUSION
This is the first study giving evidence of the impact of climate change on incidence of infectious diseases as can be seen from highly vulnerable countries to climate change. It is recommended to improve the level of education along with public health and town planning to reduce the incidence of infectious diseases.
摘要
背景
气候变化对整个人类来说是一个令人担忧的挑战，因为它在霍乱和疟疾等传染病的出现和传播中起到中介作用。本研究旨在探讨气候变化和一些社会经济因素对传染病发病率的影响。
方法
我们使用1990 - 2017年期间的国家层面面板数据，对受气候变化影响严重的国家采用面板自回归分布滞后 - 均值组估计（ARDL - PMG）技术。
结果
气候变化、社会经济因素与传染病患病率之间存在长期协整关系。以温度衡量的气候变化正在促使传染病传播。
结论
这是第一项从对气候变化高度脆弱的国家中证明气候变化对传染病发病率有影响的研究。建议提高教育水平，同时改善公共卫生和城市规划，以降低传染病发病率。
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