Son Vo Hai, Safarnejad Ali, Nga Nguyen Thien, Linh Vu Manh, Tu Le Thi Cam, Manh Pham Duc, Long Nguyen Hoang, Abdul-Quader Abu
Vietnam Authority of HIV/AIDS Control, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam.
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Green One United Nations House, Hanoi, Vietnam.
JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2019 Apr 17;5(2):e12451. doi: 10.2196/12451.
Although the prevalence of HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Vietnam has been increasing in recent years, there are no estimates of the population size of MSM based on tested empirical methods.
This study aimed to estimate the size of the MSM population in 12 provinces in Vietnam and extrapolate from those areas to generate a national population estimate of MSM. A secondary aim of this study was to compare the feasibility of obtaining the number of users of a mobile social (chat and dating) app for MSM using 3 different approaches.
This study used the social app multiplier method to estimate the size of MSM populations in 12 provinces using the count of users on a social app popular with MSM in Vietnam as the first data source and a questionnaire propagated through the MSM community using respondent-driven sampling as the second data source. A national estimation of the MSM population is extrapolated from the results in the study provinces, and the percentage of MSM reachable through online social networks is clarified.
The highest MSM population size among the 12 provinces is estimated in Hanoi and the lowest is estimated in Binh Dinh. On average, 37% of MSM in the provinces surveyed had used the social app Jack'd in the last 30 days (95% CI 27-48). Extrapolation of the results from the study provinces with reliable estimations results in an estimated national population of 178,000 MSM (95% CI 122,000-512,000) aged 15 to 49 years in Vietnam. The percentage of MSM among adult males aged 15 to 49 years in Vietnam is 0.68% (95% CI 0.46-1.95).
This study is the first attempt to empirically estimate the population of MSM in Vietnam and highlights the feasibility of reaching a large proportion of MSM through a social app. The estimation reported in this study is within the bounds suggested by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. This study provides valuable information on MSM population sizes in provinces where reliable estimates were obtained, which they can begin to work with in program planning and resource allocation.
尽管近年来越南男男性行为者（MSM）中艾滋病毒的流行率一直在上升，但尚无基于经过验证的实证方法对男男性行为者人口规模的估计。
本研究旨在估计越南12个省份男男性行为者的人口规模，并从这些地区进行推断，以得出全国男男性行为者人口的估计数。本研究的第二个目的是比较使用3种不同方法获取男男性行为者移动社交（聊天和约会）应用程序用户数量的可行性。
本研究使用社交应用程序乘数法来估计12个省份男男性行为者的人口规模，以越南一款受男男性行为者欢迎的社交应用程序上的用户数量作为第一个数据源，并通过应答驱动抽样在男男性行为者社区中传播的问卷作为第二个数据源。根据研究省份的结果推断全国男男性行为者人口，并明确通过在线社交网络能够接触到的男男性行为者的百分比。
12个省份中男男性行为者人口规模估计最高的是河内，最低的是平定。平均而言，在接受调查的省份中，37%的男男性行为者在过去30天内使用过社交应用程序Jack'd（95%置信区间27 - 48）。根据研究省份的可靠估计结果进行推断，越南15至49岁的男男性行为者全国人口估计为178,000人（95%置信区间122,000 - 512,000）。越南15至49岁成年男性中男男性行为者的百分比为0.68%（95%置信区间0.46 - 1.95）。
本研究是首次尝试实证估计越南男男性行为者的人口，并突出了通过社交应用程序接触到很大比例男男性行为者的可行性。本研究报告的估计数在联合国艾滋病规划署建议的范围内。本研究提供了有关获得可靠估计数的省份中男男性行为者人口规模的宝贵信息，可用于项目规划和资源分配。
