School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Infect Dis (Lond). 2020 Apr;52(4):284-290. doi: 10.1080/23744235.2020.1717598. Epub 2020 Feb 4.
Globally, a resurgence of measles during the last decade may be attributed to many factors. An unexpected measles outbreak occurred in Hong Kong, and infected 29 airport staff between March and April 2019. The authority updated public on new cases daily, a public enquiry telephone/online platform was set up on March 23, and an emergent vaccination programme was launched targeting unvaccinated airport staff. We aimed to study this measles outbreak and its related factors. We quantified the transmissibility of the outbreak by the time-varying effective reproduction number, (), and inferred the time-varying basic reproduction number, (). We examined the statistical associations between local public awareness or reporting delay and the (). Our estimated average is 10.7 with 95% CI of 6.0-29.2. We found that () was negatively associated with the level of public awareness and the level of promptness of situation updates on new cases. Public awareness via situation updates helped to control the outbreak. The medical effects of the vaccination programme was not soon enough to cause the immediate shutting down of the outbreak, but it boosted herd immunity to prevent future airport outbreaks in the next few years.
全球范围内，过去十年麻疹的死灰复燃可能归因于多种因素。2019 年 3 月至 4 月，香港爆发了一场出人意料的麻疹疫情，29 名机场工作人员感染。当局每天更新新病例情况，3 月 23 日设立了公共咨询电话/在线平台，并针对未接种疫苗的机场工作人员启动了紧急疫苗接种计划。我们旨在研究此次麻疹暴发及其相关因素。我们通过时变有效繁殖数（）来量化疫情的传播能力，并推断时变基本繁殖数（）。我们检查了当地公众意识或报告延迟与（）之间的统计关联。我们估计的平均 为 10.7，95%置信区间为 6.0-29.2。我们发现，（）与公众意识水平和新病例情况更新的及时性呈负相关。通过情况更新进行公众宣传有助于控制疫情。疫苗接种计划的医疗效果还不够迅速，无法立即阻止疫情的爆发，但它增强了群体免疫力，以防止未来几年在机场发生疫情。
