2019 年 12 月至 2020 年 1 月期间武汉 2019 年新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）人传人模式。

Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020.

机构信息

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.

出版信息

Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan;25(4). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058.

DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058

PMID:32019669

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7001239/

Abstract

Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.

摘要

自 2019 年 12 月以来，中国一直在经历一种新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）的大规模爆发，这种病毒可引起呼吸道疾病和严重肺炎。我们估计 2019-nCoV 的基本繁殖数约为 2.2（90%高密度区间：1.4-3.8），表明存在持续的人际传播的潜力。传播特征似乎与严重急性呼吸综合征相关冠状病毒（SARS-CoV）和大流行性流感相似，表明存在全球传播的风险。