Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.
Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands.
Euro Surveill. 2020 Feb;25(5). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000062.
A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6-7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.
一种新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）引发了始于中国武汉的病毒性肺炎疫情。利用早期疫情阶段在武汉以外地区检测到的 88 例确诊病例的旅行史和症状发作时间，我们估计平均潜伏期为 6.4 天（95%可信区间：5.6-7.7），范围为 2.1 至 11.1 天（2.5 百分位至 97.5 百分位）。这些数值有助于明确 2019-nCoV 的病例定义和适当的隔离持续时间。
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