北京非典疫情期间防控措施的有效性：Rt曲线与疫情曲线的比较
Effectiveness of control measures during the SARS epidemic in Beijing: a comparison of the Rt curve and the epidemic curve.
作者信息
Cowling B J, Ho L M, Leung G M
机构信息
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Apr;136(4):562-6. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807008722. Epub 2007 Jun 14.
Abstract
One of the areas most affected by SARS was Beijing with 2521 reported cases. We estimate the effective reproductive number Rt for the Beijing SARS epidemic, which represents the average number of secondary cases per primary case on each day of the epidemic and is therefore a measure of the underlying transmission dynamics. Our results provide a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of public health control measures. More generally, our results illustrate how changes in Rt will reflect changes in the epidemic curve.
摘要
受非典影响最严重的地区之一是北京，报告病例达2521例。我们估算了北京非典疫情的有效再生数Rt，它代表了疫情期间每天每个原发病例继发的平均病例数，因此是对潜在传播动态的一种衡量。我们的结果对公共卫生控制措施的有效性进行了定量评估。更普遍地说，我们的结果说明了Rt的变化将如何反映疫情曲线的变化。
相似文献
1
Effectiveness of control measures during the SARS epidemic in Beijing: a comparison of the Rt curve and the epidemic curve.北京非典疫情期间防控措施的有效性：Rt曲线与疫情曲线的比较
Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Apr;136(4):562-6. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807008722. Epub 2007 Jun 14.
2
The impact of public health control measures during the SARS epidemic in mainland China.中国大陆非典疫情期间公共卫生控制措施的影响。
Trop Med Int Health. 2009 Nov;14 Suppl 1:101-4. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2009.02348.x.
3
Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome.严重急性呼吸综合征的传播动力学与控制
Science. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1966-70. doi: 10.1126/science.1086616. Epub 2003 May 23.
4
Epidemiology. Modeling the SARS epidemic.流行病学。非典疫情建模。
Science. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1884-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1086925. Epub 2003 May 23.
5
Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions.香港严重急性呼吸系统综合症病原体的传播动态：公共卫生干预措施的影响
Science. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1961-6. doi: 10.1126/science.1086478. Epub 2003 May 23.
6
Efficiency of quarantine during an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome--Beijing, China, 2003.2003年中国北京严重急性呼吸综合征疫情期间的隔离效果
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2003 Oct 31;52(43):1037-40.
7
8
Assessment of intervention measures for the 2003 SARS epidemic in Taiwan by use of a back-projection method.运用反推法评估台湾地区2003年严重急性呼吸道综合征（SARS）疫情的干预措施。
Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2007 May;28(5):525-30. doi: 10.1086/516656. Epub 2007 Mar 30.
9
Estimating SARS incubation period.估算非典潜伏期。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Aug;10(8):1503-4; author reply 1504. doi: 10.3201/eid1008.040284.
10
The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: a mathematic analysis.严重急性呼吸综合征疫情防控中靶向抗体预防的潜力：数学分析
Travel Med Infect Dis. 2007 Mar;5(2):70-8. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2006.01.007. Epub 2006 May 5.
引用本文的文献
1
Estimating effective reproduction number revisited.重新审视有效繁殖数的估计。
Infect Dis Model. 2023 Aug 30;8(4):1063-1078. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.08.006. eCollection 2023 Dec.
2
Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic.运动对疫情早期阶段的影响。
Bull Math Biol. 2022 Sep 23;84(11):128. doi: 10.1007/s11538-022-01077-5.
3
A fractional order Covid-19 epidemic model with Mittag-Leffler kernel.一个具有米塔格-莱夫勒核的分数阶新冠疫情模型。
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2021 Jul;148:111030. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111030. Epub 2021 May 12.
4
Evaluation of the effect of different policies in the containment of epidemic spreads for the COVID-19 case.评估不同政策对新冠疫情传播的遏制效果。
Biomed Signal Process Control. 2021 Mar;65:102325. doi: 10.1016/j.bspc.2020.102325. Epub 2020 Nov 26.
5
Outbreak of COVID-19 and SARS in mainland China: a comparative study based on national surveillance data.中国大陆 COVID-19 和 SARS 爆发：基于国家监测数据的比较研究。
BMJ Open. 2020 Oct 15;10(10):e043411. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043411.
6
Impact of mitigating interventions and temperature on the instantaneous reproduction number in the COVID-19 pandemic among 30 US metropolitan areas.缓解干预措施和温度对美国30个大都市区新冠疫情期间瞬时再生数的影响。
One Health. 2020 Dec;10:100160. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100160. Epub 2020 Aug 22.
7
School closure in response to epidemic outbreaks: Systems-based logic model of downstream impacts.应对疫情爆发而关闭学校：基于系统的下游影响逻辑模型。
F1000Res. 2020 May 12;9:352. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.23631.1. eCollection 2020.
8
New investigation of bats-hosts-reservoir-people coronavirus model and application to 2019-nCoV system.蝙蝠-宿主-储存宿主-人类冠状病毒模型的新研究及其在2019-nCoV系统中的应用。
Adv Differ Equ. 2020;2020(1):391. doi: 10.1186/s13662-020-02831-6. Epub 2020 Aug 3.
9
Risk Interactions of Coronavirus Infection across Age Groups after the Peak of COVID-19 Epidemic.新冠疫情高峰期后各年龄段冠状病毒感染的风险交互作用。
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jul 21;17(14):5246. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17145246.
10
Estimation of the serial interval and basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and three other countries: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.伊朗库姆及其他三国 COVID-19 的序列间隔和基本繁殖数的估计：疫情早期基于数据的分析。
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020 Nov;67(6):2860-2868. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13656. Epub 2020 Jun 16.
本文引用的文献
1
Alternative methods of estimating an incubation distribution: examples from severe acute respiratory syndrome.估计潜伏期分布的替代方法：来自严重急性呼吸综合征的实例
Epidemiology. 2007 Mar;18(2):253-9. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000254660.07942.fb.
2
Estimating in real time the efficacy of measures to control emerging communicable diseases.实时评估控制新出现的传染病措施的效果。
Am J Epidemiol. 2006 Sep 15;164(6):591-7. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwj274. Epub 2006 Aug 3.
3
Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS.SARS早期检测中的实时估计。
Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;12(1):110-3. doi: 10.3201/eid1201.050593.
4
Case fatality rate of severe acute respiratory syndromes in Beijing.北京严重急性呼吸综合征的病死率
Biomed Environ Sci. 2005 Aug;18(4):220-6.
5
6
Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures.严重急性呼吸综合征的不同流行曲线显示了控制措施的相似影响。
Am J Epidemiol. 2004 Sep 15;160(6):509-16. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwh255.
7
Evaluation of control measures implemented in the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Beijing, 2003.2003年北京严重急性呼吸综合征疫情中实施的控制措施评估。
JAMA. 2003 Dec 24;290(24):3215-21. doi: 10.1001/jama.290.24.3215.
8
Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome.严重急性呼吸综合征的传播动力学与控制
Science. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1966-70. doi: 10.1126/science.1086616. Epub 2003 May 23.
Zotero 插件