School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China.
National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, National Engineering Laboratory of Big Data Application in Integrated Transportation, School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Apr;27(12):13703-13713. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-07866-6. Epub 2020 Feb 7.
High-speed rail (HSR) is one of the essential innovations in the field of transportation in the latter half of the twentieth century. In China, the rapid development of HSR has received increasing attention and resulted in a boost of tourism, with significant impact on the development of cities that operates HSR. To accurately comprehend how will the operation of HSR influence the regional CO emissions, this paper applies the modified STIRPAT model, combining with real data on high-speed rail passenger flow volume of the Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed rail Hunan section. The results show that (1) the high-speed rail operation is also a significant impact factor for regional CO emissions. (2) Considering the operation of HSR, the ranking of contribution rate of driving factors for regional CO emissions is as follows: GDP per capita, energy consumption per unit of GDP, arrival volume of high-speed rail, originated volume of high-speed rail, the proportion of coal in the energy mix, proportion of the tertiary industry, and population. (3) Surprisingly, the numerical research result shows that the operation of HSR for the cities may promote regional CO emissions, while the increase in urban population and the optimization of energy structure have a reducing effect on regional carbon emissions. There is a transfer effect of the operation of HSR and region development, which results in the rising of regional CO emissions. Thus, it is urgent to research on the decoupling of economic growth from CO emissions. The findings could be conducive for the government and railway company to evaluate and administrate the operation of high-speed rail and adequately deal with the relationships between the high-speed railway and regional development.
高铁（HSR）是 20 世纪后半叶交通运输领域的重要创新之一。在中国，高铁的快速发展受到了越来越多的关注，并推动了旅游业的发展，对运营高铁的城市发展产生了重大影响。为了准确理解高铁运营将如何影响区域 CO 排放，本文应用修正后的 STIRPAT 模型，结合京广高铁湖南段高铁客流量的实际数据。结果表明：（1）高铁运营也是区域 CO 排放的重要影响因素。（2）考虑到高铁的运营，区域 CO 排放驱动因素贡献率的排名如下：人均 GDP、单位 GDP 能耗、高铁到达量、高铁出发量、煤炭在能源结构中的比例、第三产业比例和人口。（3）令人惊讶的是，数值研究结果表明，高铁运营可能会促进城市的区域 CO 排放，而城市人口的增加和能源结构的优化对区域碳排放有减少作用。高铁运营和区域发展存在转移效应，导致区域 CO 排放上升。因此，迫切需要研究经济增长与 CO 排放的脱钩。研究结果有助于政府和铁路公司评估和管理高铁运营，并妥善处理高铁与区域发展之间的关系。
