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基于人工神经网络(ANN)的太阳辐照度测量仪器和太阳能发电预测:五年研究趋势综述。

Solar irradiance measurement instrumentation and power solar generation forecasting based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN): A review of five years research trend.

机构信息

Faculty of Electrical and Automation Engineering Technology, TATIUC, 24000, Terengganu, Malaysia.

Faculty of Electrical and Automation Engineering Technology, TATIUC, 24000, Terengganu, Malaysia.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2020 May 1;715:136848. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136848. Epub 2020 Jan 22.

Abstract

The increased demand for solar renewable energy sources has created recent interest in the economic and technical issues related to the integration of Photovoltaic (PV) into the grid. Solar photovoltaic power generation forecasting is a crucial aspect of ensuring optimum grid control and power solar plant design. Accurate forecasting provides significant information to grid operators and power system designers in generating an optimal solar photovoltaic plant and to manage the power of demand and supply. This paper presents an extensive review on the implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) on solar power generation forecasting. The instrument used to measure the solar irradiance is analysed and discussed, specifically on studies that were published from February 1st, 2014 to February 1st, 2019. The selected papers were obtained from five major databases, namely, Direct Science, IEEE Xplore, Google Scholar, MDPI, and Scopus. The results of the review demonstrate the increased application of ANN on solar power generation forecasting. The hybrid system of ANN produces accurate results compared to individual models. The review also revealed that improvement forecasting accuracy can be achieved through proper handling and calibration of the solar irradiance instrument. This finding indicates that improvements in solar forecasting accuracy can be increased by reducing instrument errors that measure the weather parameter.

摘要

对太阳能等可再生能源的需求不断增加,使得人们对与光伏(PV)并网相关的经济和技术问题产生了浓厚兴趣。太阳能光伏发电预测是确保电网最佳控制和太阳能发电厂设计的关键方面。准确的预测为电网运营商和电力系统设计师提供了重要信息,有助于他们设计出最佳的太阳能光伏发电厂,并管理需求和供应的电力。本文对人工神经网络(ANN)在太阳能发电预测中的应用进行了全面回顾。文中分析和讨论了用于测量太阳辐照度的仪器,具体研究从 2014 年 2 月 1 日到 2019 年 2 月 1 日发表的研究。选择的论文来自五个主要数据库,分别是 Direct Science、IEEE Xplore、Google Scholar、MDPI 和 Scopus。综述结果表明,ANN 在太阳能发电预测中的应用越来越广泛。与单个模型相比,ANN 的混合系统产生了更准确的结果。该综述还表明,通过正确处理和校准太阳辐照度仪器,可以提高预测精度。这一发现表明,通过减少测量气象参数的仪器误差,可以提高太阳能预测精度。

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