Public Health Observatory, NHS Health Scotland, Meridian Court, 5 Cadogan Street, Glasgow, G2 6QE, UK
Public Health Observatory, NHS Health Scotland, Meridian Court, 5 Cadogan Street, Glasgow, G2 6QE, UK.
BMJ Open. 2020 Feb 9;10(2):e030064. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-030064.
Mortality rates in Scotland are higher, and health inequalities are greater, than in the rest of Western and Central Europe. There was a marked divergence during the 1980s and 1990s in the Scottish rates partly due to rises in alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, suicide and deaths by assault. This study examines whether age, period or cohort effects account for the trends in death by assault in Scotland and any sex or deprivation inequalities in these.
We calculated crude and age-standardised mortality rates for deaths by assault for Scottish men and women from 1974 to 2015 for the population overall and for populations stratified by Carstairs area of deprivation. We examined age-sex stratified trends to identify obvious age-period-cohort effects.
This study was conducted in Scotland.
Men and women whose registered death by the International Classification of Diseases was due to assault from 1974 to 2015 (n=3936) were included in this study.
Whereas age-standardised mortality rates from this cause fell gradually for women since 1974, for men they increased in the early 1990s and remained higher until around 2006, before falling. Death by assault was substantially more common among men aged around 15-50 years and in the most deprived areas. There was little change in the age groups most impacted over time, which made cohort effects unlikely. A period effect for the 15 years until 2006, with a consistent age-sex-area deprivation patterning, was evident.
Mortality due to assault in Scotland is unequally felt, with young men living in the most deprived areas suffering the highest rates. There is a 15-year period effect up until 2006, impacting on young men as an age-period interaction, with no obvious cohort effects. Exploration of the demographics of criminological data may identify age, period or cohort effects among perpetrators of assault.
苏格兰的死亡率高于其他西欧和中欧国家，卫生不平等现象也更为严重。在 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代，苏格兰的死亡率出现了明显的差异，部分原因是与酒精和药物相关的死亡、自杀和袭击导致的死亡人数增加。本研究考察了年龄、时期或队列效应对苏格兰袭击死亡趋势的影响，以及这些趋势在性别和贫困方面的差异。
我们计算了苏格兰 1974 年至 2015 年所有人群以及按卡斯特斯地区贫困程度分层的人群中因袭击而死亡的男性和女性的粗死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率。我们检查了年龄-性别分层趋势，以确定明显的年龄-时期-队列效应。
本研究在苏格兰进行。
本研究纳入了 1974 年至 2015 年因国际疾病分类的登记死因是袭击的男性和女性（n=3936）。
自 1974 年以来，女性因该原因导致的标准化死亡率逐渐下降，而男性则在 20 世纪 90 年代初期上升，直到 2006 年左右仍保持较高水平，然后下降。在 15-50 岁左右的男性和最贫困地区，袭击导致的死亡更为常见。随着时间的推移，受影响最大的年龄组几乎没有变化，这使得队列效应不太可能。直到 2006 年的 15 年期间存在一个时期效应，具有一致的年龄-性别-地区贫困模式。
苏格兰因袭击导致的死亡率存在不平等现象，最贫困地区的年轻男性死亡率最高。直到 2006 年，有一个 15 年的时期效应，对年轻男性产生了年龄-时期的相互作用，没有明显的队列效应。对犯罪学数据的人口统计学分析可能会确定袭击行为者的年龄、时期或队列效应。
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