Plaut M E
Department of Medicine, State University of New York, Buffalo 14214.
J Med. 1988;19(5-6):269-95.
A review of infectious diseases and other conditions, as reported over a period of months to many years, shows that our attempt to forecast peaks and troughs of disease activity fails more often than not. A technique used to discern and count rising and falling waves of disease activity (also employed in stock markets and known there as the Elliott Wave Principle) provides a novel approach for better understanding of outbreaks of disease and the attitude of health professionals in response. Thirteen figures demonstrate the approach in action.
对几个月至多年期间报告的传染病及其他病症的回顾表明，我们预测疾病活动高峰和低谷的尝试往往以失败告终。一种用于识别和统计疾病活动增减波动的技术（在股票市场也有应用，在那里被称为艾略特波浪理论）为更好地理解疾病暴发以及卫生专业人员对此的应对态度提供了一种新方法。十三幅图展示了该方法的实际应用。
