CEMADEN, Brazilian National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil.
CCST/INPE, Earth System Science Center/National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2020 Jul;1472(1):5-20. doi: 10.1111/nyas.14307. Epub 2020 Feb 13.
Our paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). These are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological hazards that trigger natural disasters, such as flash floods, landslides, and droughts, that affect the population and local economies. A review of the most updated literature on rainfall and extremes in the MASP shows a significant increase in the total volume of rainy-season rainfall during the last seven decades. While there were practically no days with heavy rain (more than 50 mm) in the 1950s, these days have been occurring two to five times a year in the last 10 years. This, together with the inappropriate occupation of risky areas, such as slopes and banks of watercourses, leads to inundation, flooding, and landslides. Changes in extremes can be partly due to natural climate variability but can also be related to global warming and/or urbanization. There is ample evidence of an increasing risk of rainfall-related hazards in the MASP. This is particularly so for landslides in vulnerable areas. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. This calls for significant improvement in climate and disaster risk reduction and management efforts in the MASP region.
我们的论文回顾了在研究和理解圣保罗大都市区（MASP）极端降雨事件的观测趋势方面的最新进展。这些趋势与引发自然灾害的水文气象灾害有关，例如洪水、山体滑坡和干旱，这些灾害影响到人口和当地经济。对 MASP 降雨和极端事件的最新文献的回顾表明，在过去的七十年中，雨季的总降雨量显著增加。虽然在 20 世纪 50 年代几乎没有出现过暴雨（超过 50 毫米）的天气，但在过去的 10 年中，每年都会出现两到五次这样的天气。再加上对危险地区（如斜坡和水道岸堤）的不当占用，导致了洪水泛滥、洪灾和山体滑坡。极端变化的部分原因可能是自然气候变化，但也可能与全球变暖以及/或城市化有关。圣保罗大都市区与降雨相关的灾害风险增加的证据充足。在脆弱地区，山体滑坡的风险尤其大。暴露将继续导致风险增加。这就需要在 MASP 地区大力加强气候和减少灾害风险以及灾害管理工作。
