Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
Faculty of Behavioral, Management and Social Sciences, University of Twente, The Netherlands.
Risk Anal. 2022 Dec;42(12):2781-2799. doi: 10.1111/risa.13897. Epub 2022 Feb 6.
As climate change increases the probability and severity of natural hazards, the need for coordinated adaptation at all levels of society intensifies. Governmental-level adaptation measures are essential, but insufficient in the face of growing risks, necessitating complementary action from households. Apprehending the drivers of household adaptation is critical if governments are to stimulate protective behavior effectively. While past work has focused on the behavioral drivers of household adaptation, little attention has been paid to understanding the relationships between adaptation measures themselves-both previously undergone and additionally (planned) intended adaptation(s). Using survey data (N = 4,688) from four countries-the United States, China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands-we utilize protection motivation theory to account for the behavioral drivers of household adaptation to the most devastating climate-driven hazard: flooding. We analyze how past and additionally intended adaptations involving structural modification to one's home affect household behavior. We find that both prior adaptations and additionally intended adaptation have a positive effect on intending a specific adaptation. Further, we note that once links between adaptations are accounted for, the effect that worry has on motivating specific actions, substantially lessens. This suggests that while threat appraisal is important in initially determining if households intend to adapt, it is households' adaptive capacity that determines how. Our analysis reveals that household structural modifications may be nonmarginal. This could indicate that past action and intention to pursue one action trigger intentions for other adaptations, a finding with implications for estimating the speed and scope of household adaptation diffusion.
随着气候变化增加了自然灾害的可能性和严重程度,社会各层面协调适应的需求也在加剧。政府层面的适应措施是必要的,但面对日益增长的风险还远远不够,这需要家庭采取补充行动。如果政府要有效地激发保护行为,了解家庭适应的驱动因素至关重要。虽然过去的工作重点是家庭适应的行为驱动因素,但很少关注理解适应措施本身之间的关系——以前采取的和另外(计划)打算采取的适应措施。我们利用来自四个国家(美国、中国、印度尼西亚和荷兰)的调查数据(N=4688),利用保护动机理论来解释家庭对最具破坏性的气候驱动灾害(洪水)的适应的行为驱动因素。我们分析了对家庭住宅进行结构性改造的以往适应和另外计划的适应如何影响家庭行为。我们发现,以前的适应和另外计划的适应都对打算进行特定的适应有积极的影响。此外,我们注意到,一旦考虑到适应之间的联系,担心对激励特定行动的影响就会大大减弱。这表明,虽然威胁评估在最初确定家庭是否打算适应时很重要,但家庭的适应能力决定了如何适应。我们的分析表明,家庭结构的改变可能不是微不足道的。这可能表明过去的行动和采取一种行动的意图引发了对其他适应的意图,这一发现对估计家庭适应扩散的速度和范围具有重要意义。