Peter Phalen is with the Veterans Affairs Capitol Health Care Network Mental Illness Research, Education, and Clinical Center, and the Department of Psychiatry of the University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore. Erricka Bridgeford is with Baltimore Ceasefire 365, Baltimore, and Community Mediation Maryland, Takoma Park. Letrice Gant is with Baltimore Ceasefire 365. Aaron Kivisto is with the University of Indianapolis, Indianapolis, IN. Brad Ray is with the Center for Behavioral Health and Justice at Wayne State University School of Social Work, Detroit, MI. Simon Fitzgerald is with Kings County Hospital Center and the State University of New York Downstate College of Medicine, Brooklyn, NY, and Baltimore Ceasefire 365.
Am J Public Health. 2020 Apr;110(4):554-559. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2019.305513. Epub 2020 Feb 20.
To estimate the impact of recurring community-led, weekend-long ceasefires on gun violence in the City of Baltimore, Maryland. The City of Baltimore releases detailed data on all crimes occurring in the city. We compiled daily counts of fatal and nonfatal shootings occurring between January 2012 and July 2019 and fit a Bayesian model to estimate the impact of the ceasefires on gun violence during designated weekends after accounting for yearly seasonality, day of the week, calendar days, and overall time trends. We also looked at the 3-day periods following each 3-day ceasefire weekend to test for a possible postponement effect. There was an estimated 52% (95% credible interval [CI] = 33%, 67%) reduction in gun violence during ceasefire days and no evidence of a postponement effect on either the next 3 days or the next 3-day weekend following each ceasefire weekend (incidence rate ratio = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.72, 1.06). The Baltimore Ceasefire weekends may be an effective short-term intervention for reducing gun violence. Future research should aim to understand the key components and transferability of the intervention.
评估马里兰州巴尔的摩市周期性社区主导的周末停火对枪支暴力的影响。巴尔的摩市公布了该市所有犯罪的详细数据。我们整理了 2012 年 1 月至 2019 年 7 月期间发生的致命和非致命枪击事件的每日计数，并在考虑季节性、星期几、日历日和整体时间趋势的情况下，拟合贝叶斯模型来估计停火对指定周末枪支暴力的影响。我们还研究了每个 3 天停火周末之后的 3 天期，以测试可能的推迟效应。在停火日，枪支暴力估计减少了 52%（95%可信区间 [CI] = 33%，67%），并且在每次停火周末之后的接下来的 3 天或 3 天周末，没有证据表明有推迟效应（发病率比 = 0.88；95% CI = 0.72，1.06）。巴尔的摩停火周末可能是减少枪支暴力的一种有效短期干预措施。未来的研究应旨在了解干预措施的关键组成部分和可转移性。
