National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
Environ Pollut. 2020 Jun;261:113650. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2019.113650. Epub 2019 Nov 27.
This study analyzes emissions pathways and mitigation potentials of greenhouse gases (GHGs), air-pollution and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), while taking mitigation actions for achieving a 2 °C global temperature change limit above pre-industrial levels, so-called "2 °C target." The study evaluates SLCPs (i.e. BC, CH, tropospheric O) mitigation scenarios by considering synergies and tradeoffs of various combinations of low-carbon measures and air pollutants control measures. It was found that, even if CO emissions pathways in this study are all similar to achieve the 2 °C target, reaching a carbon price at around 400 US$/tCOeq. in 2050, SLCPs and air pollutants emissions pathways and mitigation potentials are largely influenced by combinations of some key mitigation measures. The maximum mitigation potential reductions of SLCPs (BC, CH) and air pollutants (NOx, CO, NMVOC, which are precursors of tropospheric O) in Asia are 89%, 22%, 67%, 37%, and 11% respectively by 2050 compared to the 2010 levels. After considering both direct SLCP reduction effects (i.e. mitigating BC, CH) and indirect SLCP reduction effects (i.e. mitigating NOx, CO, NMVOC for reducing tropospheric O generation and atmospheric CH concentration), it can be adjudged that combinations of widespread promotion of renewable energies, drastic electrification in transport, residential and commercial sectors, high biofuel shares in the transport sector, and a certain level of deployment of removal devices would be effective SLCP mitigation scenarios.
本研究分析了温室气体（GHG）、空气污染物和短寿命气候污染物（SLCP）的排放途径和减排潜力，同时考虑了实现高于工业化前水平 2°C 的全球温度变化限制（即“2°C 目标”）的减排措施。本研究通过考虑低碳措施和空气污染物控制措施的各种组合的协同作用和权衡，评估了 SLCP（即 BC、CH、对流层 O）减排情景。研究发现，即使本研究中的 CO 排放途径都相似，以实现 2°C 目标，但到 2050 年，CO2e 的碳价格约为 400 美元/吨，SLCP 和空气污染物的排放途径和减排潜力在很大程度上受到一些关键减排措施组合的影响。与 2010 年水平相比，到 2050 年，亚洲 SLCP（BC、CH）和空气污染物（NOx、CO、NMVOC，是对流层 O 的前体）的最大减排潜力分别减少 89%、22%、67%、37%和 11%。在考虑了直接 SLCP 减排效应（即减少 BC、CH）和间接 SLCP 减排效应（即减少 NOx、CO、NMVOC 以减少对流层 O 的生成和大气 CH 浓度）之后，可以判断广泛推广可再生能源、交通运输、住宅和商业部门的大幅电气化、在交通运输部门中使用较高比例的生物燃料以及一定水平的去除装置的组合将是有效的 SLCP 减排情景。
