Statistics, Economics and Modelling Department, National Infection Service, Public Health England, London, UK.
Field Epidemiology Service South East and London, National Infection Service, Public Health England, London, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 2020 Feb 21;148:e60. doi: 10.1017/S0950268820000527.
For outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease, rapid identification of the source is crucial to enable public health intervention and prevent further cases. Outbreak investigation comprises analyses of exposure information from cases and, if required, undertaking analytical epidemiological studies. Hypothesis generation has been reliant on empirical knowledge of exposures historically associated with a given pathogen. Epidemiology studies are resource-intensive and prone to bias, one of the reasons being the difficulties in recruiting appropriate controls. For this paper, the information from cases was compared against pre-defined background exposure information. As exemplars, three past outbreaks were used, one of common and two of rare exposures. Information from historical case trawling questionnaires was used to define background exposure having removed any exposures implicated with the outbreak. The case-background approach showed good sensitivity and specificity, identifying correctly all outbreak-related exposures. One additional exposure related to a retailer was identified and four food items where all cases had been exposed. In conclusion, the case-background method, a development of the case-case design, can be used to assist with hypothesis generation or when a case-control study may not be possible to carry out.
对于胃肠道疾病的爆发,快速确定源头对于公共卫生干预和防止进一步病例至关重要。爆发调查包括对病例的暴露信息进行分析,如果需要,还需要进行分析性流行病学研究。假设的产生一直依赖于历史上与特定病原体相关的暴露的经验知识。流行病学研究资源密集且容易出现偏差,其中一个原因是难以招募到合适的对照。在本文中,将病例信息与预先定义的背景暴露信息进行了比较。作为范例,使用了三个过去的爆发,其中一个是常见暴露,两个是罕见暴露。通过从历史病例追踪调查问卷中获取信息,在排除了与爆发相关的暴露后,定义了背景暴露。病例-背景方法具有良好的敏感性和特异性,正确识别了所有与爆发相关的暴露。还确定了一个与零售商有关的额外暴露,以及所有病例都接触过的四种食品。总之,病例-背景方法是病例-病例设计的发展,可以用于协助假设的产生,或者在无法进行病例对照研究时使用。