Assessing the risk of human trichinellosis from pigs kept under controlled and non-controlled housing in Europe.

To support risk-based approach to prevent human trichinellosis, we estimated the human incidence for pigs originating from controlled and non-controlled housing, using a quantitative microbial risk assessment model for (QMRA-T). Moreover, the effect of test sensitivity on human trichinellosis incidence from pigs from non-controlled housing was quantified. The estimated annual risk from pigs from non-controlled housing was 59,443 human trichinellosis cases without testing at meat inspection and 832 (95%CI 346-1410) cases with testing, thus preventing 98.6% of trichinellosis cases per year by testing at meat inspection. Using the QMRA-T, a slight decrease in test sensitivity had a significant effect on the number of human trichinellosis cases from this housing type. The estimated annual risk for pigs from controlled housing was <0.002 (range 0.000-0.007) human cases with- and <0.010 (0.001-0.023) cases without testing at meat inspection, which does not differ significantly ( = 0.2075). In practice, this means no cases per year irrespective of testing. Thus controlled housing effectively prevents infection and testing does not contribute to food safety for this housing type. Not testing for requires evidence based full compliance with regulations for controlled housing.