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角膜弓用于年龄估计的评估

An Evaluation of the Arcus Corneae For Age Estimation.

作者信息

Hanterdsith Boonsak

出版信息

Acad Forensic Pathol. 2019 Sep;9(3-4):155-162. doi: 10.1177/1925362119891708. Epub 2020 Jan 31.

DOI:10.1177/1925362119891708
PMID:32110250
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6997987/
Abstract

Although the arcus corneae (AC) has long been used as an age indicator for forensic purposes, its diagnostic value has not been evaluated. To evaluate the AC as a predictor of chronological age, the author has studied the correlation of AC with respect to age of the deceased. A cross-sectional study was conducted of 342 Thai corpses at the Maharat Nakhon Ratchasima Hospital, Thailand. AC was graded into three levels: no AC, incomplete ring, and complete ring. One-way analysis of variance, chi-square test, binomial logistic regression, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were used for analysis. The Cohen's kappa was used to determine the intraobserver and interobserver reliability. The prevalence of AC and the probability of complete AC were significant higher in corpses aged 60 years and above than in those under 60 years. Consequently, this study confirmed that the prevalence of AC was significantly correlated with the age of Thai individuals. If the complete AC is used as an indicator of age of 60 years and above, complete AC has high sensitivity (92.56%) but low specificity (72.85%), low positive predictive value (65.12%), but high negative predictive value (94.71%). For diagnostic value, the presence of AC can be used for age screening but not for absolute confirmation. The absence of AC indicates young age, incomplete AC indicates middle age, and complete AC indicates old age. The high intraobserver and interobserver reliability provides assurance of the value of AC as a means to estimate personal age.

摘要

尽管角膜弓长期以来一直被用作法医鉴定年龄的指标,但其诊断价值尚未得到评估。为了评估角膜弓作为实际年龄预测指标的价值,作者研究了角膜弓与死者年龄之间的相关性。在泰国呵叻玛哈叻医院对342具泰国尸体进行了横断面研究。角膜弓分为三个等级:无角膜弓、不完全环和完全环。采用单因素方差分析、卡方检验、二项逻辑回归、敏感性、特异性、预测值和似然比进行分析。使用科恩kappa系数来确定观察者内和观察者间的可靠性。60岁及以上尸体的角膜弓患病率和完全角膜弓的概率显著高于60岁以下的尸体。因此,本研究证实角膜弓的患病率与泰国人的年龄显著相关。如果将完全角膜弓用作60岁及以上年龄的指标,完全角膜弓具有高敏感性(92.56%)但低特异性(72.85%)、低阳性预测值(65.12%)但高阴性预测值(94.71%)。就诊断价值而言,角膜弓的存在可用于年龄筛查,但不能用于绝对确诊。无角膜弓表明年龄小,不完全角膜弓表明中年,完全角膜弓表明老年。观察者内和观察者间的高可靠性为角膜弓作为估计个人年龄手段的价值提供了保证。

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本文引用的文献

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