Huang L L, Shen S P, Yu P, Wei Y Y
Department of Biostatistics, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Apr 10;41(4):466-469. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200209-00080.
To evaluate the current status of the prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China, establish a predictive model to evaluate the effects of the current prevention and control strategies, and provide scientific information for decision-making departments. Based on the epidemic data of COVID-19 openly accessed from national health authorities, we estimated the dynamic basic reproduction number (0)() to evaluate the effects of the current COVID-19 prevention and control strategies in all the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) as well as in Wuhan and the changes in infectivity of COVID-19 over time. For the stability of the results, 24 provinces (municipality) with more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. At the beginning of the outbreak, the (0)() showed unstable trend with big variances. As the strengthening of the prevention and control strategies, (0)() began to show a downward trend in late January, and became stable in February. By the time of data analysis, 18 provinces (municipality) (75) had the (0)()s less than 1. The results could be used for the decision making to free population floating conditionally. Dynamic (0)() is useful in the evaluation of the change in infectivity of COVID-19, the prevention and control strategies for the COVID-19 outbreak have shown preliminary effects, if continues, it is expected to control the COVID-19 outbreak in China in near future.
为评估中国新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的防控现状，建立预测模型以评估当前防控策略的效果，并为决策部门提供科学依据。基于从国家卫生部门公开获取的COVID-19疫情数据，我们估算了动态基本再生数（(R_0)）以评估当前COVID-19防控策略在所有省份（直辖市和自治区）以及武汉市的效果，以及COVID-19传染性随时间的变化。为保证结果的稳定性，分析纳入了确诊COVID-19病例数超过100例的24个省份（直辖市）。在疫情初期，(R_0)呈不稳定趋势且波动较大。随着防控策略的加强，(R_0)在1月下旬开始呈下降趋势，并于2月趋于稳定。截至数据分析时，18个省份（直辖市）（占75%）的(R_0)小于1。该结果可用于有条件解除人员流动限制的决策。动态(R_0)有助于评估COVID-19传染性的变化，COVID-19疫情的防控策略已初步显现效果，若持续下去，有望在近期控制中国的COVID-19疫情。
