Wei Y Y, Lu Z Z, Du Z C, Zhang Z J, Zhao Y, Shen S P, Wang B, Hao Y T, Chen F
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.
Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Apr 10;41(4):470-475. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200216-00106.
Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 epidemics. Based on SEIR dynamic model, considering the COVID-19 transmission mechanism, infection spectrum and prevention and control procedures, we developed SEIR(+CAQ) dynamic model to fit the frequencies of laboratory confirmed cases obtained from the government official websites. The data from January 20, 2020 to February 7, 2020 were used to fit the model, while the left data between February 8-12 were used to evaluate the quality of forecasting. According to the cumulative number of confirmed cases between January 29 to February 7, the fitting bias of SEIR(+CAQ) model for overall China (except for cases of Hubei province), Hubei province (except for cases of Wuhan city) and Wuhan city was less than 5. For the data of subsequent 5 days between February 8 to 12, which were not included in the model fitting, the prediction biases were less than 10. Regardless of the cases diagnosed by clinical examines, the numbers of daily emerging cases of China (Hubei province not included), Hubei Province (Wuhan city not included) and Wuhan city reached the peak in the early February. Under the current strength of prevention and control, the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases in overall China will reach 80 417 till February 29, 2020, respectively. The proposed SEIR(+CAQ) dynamic model fits and forecasts the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia well and provides evidence for decision making.
拟合和预测新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势。基于SEIR动力学模型，考虑新型冠状病毒肺炎的传播机制、感染谱及防控措施，构建了SEIR(+CAQ)动力学模型，对来自政府官方网站的确诊病例数进行拟合。采用2020年1月20日至2月7日的数据对模型进行拟合，2月8日至12日的剩余数据用于评估预测效果。根据1月29日至2月7日的累计确诊病例数，SEIR(+CAQ)模型对全国（除湖北省）、湖北省（除武汉市）和武汉市的拟合偏差均小于5%。对于未纳入模型拟合的2月8日至12日后续5天的数据，预测偏差小于10%。不考虑临床诊断病例，全国（不包括湖北省）、湖北省（不包括武汉市）和武汉市的新增病例数均在2月初达到峰值。在当前防控力度下，截至2020年2月29日，全国累计确诊病例数将分别达到80417例。所构建的SEIR(+CAQ)动力学模型对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势拟合和预测效果良好，可为决策提供依据。
