评估韩国因时间接触增加而引发的 COVID-19 疫情爆发。
Evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak caused by temporal contact-increase in South Korea.
机构信息
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, 2, Busandaehak-ro 63beon-gil, 46241, Busan, Republic of Korea; Finance∙Fishery∙Manufacture Industrial Mathematics Center on Big Data, Pusan National University, 2, Busandaehak-ro 63beon-gil, 46241, Busan, Republic of Korea.
Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, 2, Busandaehak-ro 63beon-gil, 46241, Busan, Republic of Korea.
出版信息
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;96:454-457. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.036. Epub 2020 May 14.
OBJECTIVES
On March 15, 2020, 61.3% of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection in South Korea are associated with the worship service that was organized on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu. We aim to evaluate the effects of mass infection in South Korea and assess the preventive control intervention.
METHOD
Using openly available data of daily cumulative confirmed cases and deaths, the basic and effective reproduction numbers was estimated using a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-type epidemic model.
RESULTS
The basic reproduction number was estimated to be R=1.77. The effective reproduction number increased approximately 20 times after the mass infections from the 31 st patient, which was confirmed on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, Daegu. However, the effective reproduction number decreased to less than unity after February 28 owing to the implementation of high-level preventive control interventions in South Korea, coupled with voluntary prevention actions by citizens.
CONCLUSION
Preventive action and control intervention were successfully established in South Korea.
目的
2020 年 3 月 15 日，韩国 61.3%的 COVID-19 感染确诊病例与 2 月 9 日在大邱新天地耶稣教见证帐幕圣殿组织的礼拜活动有关。本研究旨在评估韩国大规模感染的影响，并评估预防控制干预措施的效果。
方法
使用公开的每日累计确诊病例和死亡病例数据，使用修正的易感-暴露-感染-恢复型传染病模型估计基本繁殖数和有效繁殖数。
结果
基本繁殖数估计为 R=1.77。2 月 9 日，在大邱新天地耶稣教见证帐幕圣殿，第 31 例确诊病例发生大规模感染后，有效繁殖数增加了约 20 倍。然而，由于韩国实施了高水平的预防控制干预措施，加上公民的自愿预防行动，自 2 月 28 日以来，有效繁殖数已降至 1 以下。
结论
韩国成功建立了预防行动和控制干预措施。
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