Centre for Geometric Biology, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2020 Mar;4(3):406-411. doi: 10.1038/s41559-020-1114-9. Epub 2020 Mar 2.
Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (T). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates of T predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across seven phyla remarkably well (R ~0.83). Developmental cost theory predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment and developmental cost theory provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. Developmental cost theory predicts that tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming.
后生动物必须从受精卵发育为摄食生物。在此过程中，发育中的后代会消耗其亲代提供的能量的 60%。发育的成本取决于两个速率：代谢率，决定能量消耗的速率；以及发育期，决定发育阶段的长短。发育和新陈代谢都高度依赖于温度，因此发育成本应该对当地的热环境敏感。在这里，我们开发、参数化和测试了发育成本理论，这是一种生理上明确的理论，表明变温动物在最小化发育成本的狭窄热窗中有狭窄的热窗（T）。我们的发育成本理论衍生的 T 值预测了七个门的 71 个物种的自然热环境，非常准确（R~0.83）。发育成本理论预测，与生存等经典指标相比，发育成本对温度的微小变化更为敏感。预计未来变暖导致的发育成本变化将强烈影响种群补充，而发育成本理论为确定哪些物种面临最大风险提供了机制基础。发育成本理论预测，未来变暖将使热带水生物种和大多数非筑巢的陆生物种的发育成本大幅增加。
