Post-treatment FDG PET-CT in head and neck carcinoma: comparative analysis of 4 qualitative interpretative criteria in a large patient cohort.

There is no consensus regarding optimal interpretative criteria (IC) for Fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) Positron Emission Tomography - Computed Tomography (PET-CT) response assessment following (chemo)radiotherapy (CRT) for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The aim was to compare accuracy of IC (NI-RADS, Porceddu, Hopkins, Deauville) for predicting loco-regional control and progression free survival (PFS). All patients with histologically confirmed HNSCC treated at a specialist cancer centre with curative-intent non-surgical treatment who underwent baseline and response assessment FDG PET-CT between August 2008 and May 2017 were included. Metabolic response was assessed using 4 different IC harmonised into 4-point scales (complete response, indeterminate, partial response, progressive disease). IC performance metrics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy) were compared. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed for survival analysis. 562 patients were included (397 oropharynx, 53 hypopharynx, 48 larynx, 64 other/unknown primary). 420 patients (75%) received CRT and 142 (25%) had radiotherapy alone. Median follow-up was 26 months (range 3-148). 156 patients (28%) progressed during follow-up. All IC were accurate for prediction of primary tumour (mean NPV 85.0% (84.6-85.3), PPV 85.0% (82.5-92.3), accuracy 84.9% (84.2-86.0)) and nodal outcome (mean NPV 85.6% (84.1-86.6), PPV 94.7% (93.8-95.1), accuracy 86.8% (85.6-88.0)). Number of indeterminate scores for NI-RADS, Porceddu, Deauville and Hopkins were 91, 25, 20, 13 and 55, 70, 18 and 3 for primary tumour and nodes respectively. PPV was significantly reduced for indeterminate uptake across all IC (mean PPV primary tumour 36%, nodes 48%). Survival analyses showed significant differences in PFS between response categories classified by each of the four IC (p <0.001). All four IC have similar diagnostic performance characteristics although Porceddu and Deauville scores offered the best trade off of minimising indeterminate outcomes whilst maintaining a high NPV.