School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang, 110169, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 May;27(14):16950-16962. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-08169-6. Epub 2020 Mar 6.
Based on inter-provincial energy intensity data in China from 1996 to 2016, using the model combining STIRPAT and dynamic SDM analyzes energy intensity and its influencing factors under the conditions of spatial lag, time lag, and space-time lag. Considering endogenous issues, it then explores the basic characteristics of energy intensity in space and its path dependence. The results show that spatial distribution of energy intensity in China is uneven and generally shows a pattern of decreasing from northwest to southeast. Energy intensity itself has a significant spillover effect, which can affect neighboring regions through pollution heaven effect and pollution halo effect. It can also be reduced as a result of the joint effect of driving factors. Economic development level, foreign direct investment, and technological progress have significant effects on reducing energy intensity, while industrial structure and urbanization rate increase it. The difference among driving factors lies in spatial spillover effect, and the short-term indirect effect is greater than the long-term one. Therefore, the key to realize China mode of green development is to promote factors of reducing energy intensity brought into full play and the inhibitory factors effectively controlled.
基于中国 1996 年至 2016 年的省际能源强度数据，采用结合了 STIRPAT 和动态 SDM 的模型，分析了在空间滞后、时间滞后和时空滞后条件下的能源强度及其影响因素。考虑到内生问题，探讨了能源强度在空间上的基本特征及其路径依赖性。结果表明，中国能源强度的空间分布不均匀，总体上呈现出由西北向东南递减的格局。能源强度本身具有显著的溢出效应，可以通过污染天堂效应和污染光环效应影响邻近地区，也可以通过驱动因素的共同作用而降低。经济发展水平、外商直接投资和技术进步对降低能源强度有显著影响，而产业结构和城镇化率则会增加能源强度。驱动因素的差异在于空间溢出效应，短期间接效应大于长期效应。因此，实现中国绿色发展模式的关键是充分发挥降低能源强度的因素作用，并有效控制抑制因素。
