Zhao Shi, Musa Salihu S, Hebert Jay T, Cao Peihua, Ran Jinjun, Meng Jiayi, He Daihai, Qin Jing
School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
PeerJ. 2020 Feb 27;8:e8601. doi: 10.7717/peerj.8601. eCollection 2020.
The burden of vector-borne diseases (Dengue, Zika virus, yellow fever, etc.) gradually increased in the past decade across the globe. Mathematical modelling on infectious diseases helps to study the transmission dynamics of the pathogens. Theoretically, the diseases can be controlled and eventually eradicated by maintaining the effective reproduction number, ( ), strictly less than 1. We established a vector-host compartmental model, and derived ( ) for vector-borne diseases. The analytic form of the ( ) was found to be the product of the basic reproduction number and the geometric average of the susceptibilities of the host and vector populations. The ( ) formula was demonstrated to be consistent with the estimates of the 2015-2016 yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, and distinguished the second minor epidemic wave. For those using the compartmental model to study the vector-borne infectious disease epidemics, we further remark that it is important to be aware of whether one or two generations is considered for the transition "from host to vector to host" in reproduction number calculation.
在过去十年中，全球范围内媒介传播疾病（登革热、寨卡病毒、黄热病等）的负担逐渐加重。传染病数学建模有助于研究病原体的传播动态。从理论上讲，通过维持有效繁殖数（ ）严格小于1，这些疾病可以得到控制并最终根除。我们建立了一个媒介-宿主 compartmental 模型，并推导了媒介传播疾病的（ ）。发现（ ）的解析形式是基本繁殖数与宿主和媒介种群易感性几何平均值的乘积。（ ）公式被证明与2015 - 2016年罗安达黄热病疫情的估计结果一致，并区分出了第二波较小的疫情。对于那些使用 compartmental 模型研究媒介传播传染病流行情况的人，我们进一步指出，在繁殖数计算中，重要的是要清楚在“从宿主到媒介再到宿主”的转变过程中考虑的是一代还是两代。
