School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2019 Sep;101(3):521-524. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.18-1016.
In 2017-18, a large-scale cholera outbreak swept Yemen. We calculated the number of culture-confirmed cases from the suspected cases and diagnosis testing records. We estimate 184,248 confirmed cholera cases between April 2017 and the end of 2017, and the reproduction number of 2.2 with 95% CI of [2.1, 2.3] during the initial stage. We find a significantly (nonlinear) positive association between the reproduction number ( ) and precipitation, explained 13% of transmissibility changes, with one unit (mm) increment in precipitation leading to an increment of 20.1% in . We find a significantly (nonlinear) negative association between the and cumulative Google Trends index (GTI), explained 62% of transmissibility changes, with one unit increment in cumulative GTI leading to a drop of 0.03% in .
2017-18 年，一场大规模的霍乱疫情席卷也门。我们根据疑似病例和诊断检测记录计算了确诊病例数。我们估计，2017 年 4 月至 2017 年底期间确诊霍乱病例为 184248 例，在初始阶段，繁殖数为 2.2，95%置信区间为[2.1, 2.3]。我们发现繁殖数（）与降水之间存在显著的（非线性）正相关关系，可解释传播变化的 13%，降水每增加 1 个单位（毫米），则增加 20.1%。我们发现繁殖数与累积谷歌趋势指数（GTI）之间存在显著的（非线性）负相关关系，可解释传播变化的 62%，累积 GTI 每增加 1 个单位，繁殖数则下降 0.03%。
