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基于年龄结构模型的 COVID-19 变异株影响的成本效益分析。

Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 variants effects in an age-structured model.

机构信息

Department of Artificial Intelligence and Software, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Gangwon, 25913, Republic of Korea.

Division of Data Analysis, Center for Global R&D Data Analysis, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), Seoul, 02456, Republic of Korea.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 22;13(1):15844. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-41876-x.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-41876-x
PMID:37739967
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10516971/
Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of COVID-19 variants on cost-effectiveness across age groups, considering vaccination efforts and nonpharmaceutical interventions in Republic of Korea. We aim to assess the costs needed to reduce COVID-19 cases and deaths using age-structured model. The proposed age-structured model analyzes COVID-19 transmission dynamics, evaluates vaccination effectiveness, and assesses the impact of the Delta and Omicron variants. The model is fitted using data from the Republic of Korea between February 2021 and November 2022. The cost-effectiveness of interventions, medical costs, and the cost of death for different age groups are evaluated through analysis. The impact of different variants on cases and deaths is also analyzed, with the Omicron variant increasing transmission rates and decreasing case-fatality rates compared to the Delta variant. The cost of interventions and deaths is higher for older age groups during both outbreaks, with the Omicron outbreak resulting in a higher overall cost due to increased medical costs and interventions. This analysis shows that the daily cost per person for both the Delta and Omicron variants falls within a similar range of approximately $10-$35. This highlights the importance of conducting cost-effect analyses when evaluating the impact of COVID-19 variants.

摘要

本研究分析了 COVID-19 变异株对韩国不同年龄组成本效益的影响,同时考虑了疫苗接种工作和非药物干预措施。我们旨在使用年龄结构模型评估减少 COVID-19 病例和死亡所需的成本。所提出的年龄结构模型分析了 COVID-19 的传播动态,评估了疫苗接种的有效性,并评估了 Delta 和奥密克戎变异株的影响。该模型使用了 2021 年 2 月至 2022 年 11 月韩国的数据进行拟合。通过分析评估了不同年龄组干预措施的成本效益、医疗费用和死亡成本。还分析了不同变异株对病例和死亡的影响,与 Delta 变异株相比,奥密克戎变异株增加了传播率,降低了病死率。在两次疫情中,老年人群的干预和死亡成本都更高,由于医疗费用和干预措施的增加,奥密克戎疫情导致的总费用更高。这项分析表明,Delta 和奥密克戎变异株的每人每日成本都在相似的范围内,约为 10-35 美元。这突显了在评估 COVID-19 变异株的影响时进行成本效益分析的重要性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/7bd0ff635483/41598_2023_41876_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/acdba5a9cd03/41598_2023_41876_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/ef111952013f/41598_2023_41876_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/7bd0ff635483/41598_2023_41876_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/acdba5a9cd03/41598_2023_41876_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/3b2d02d7039c/41598_2023_41876_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/e8c470dcf42c/41598_2023_41876_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/ef111952013f/41598_2023_41876_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f7f0/10516971/7bd0ff635483/41598_2023_41876_Fig5_HTML.jpg

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