Watanabe K, Fukui S, Ohta S
Department of Human Behavior and Environment Sciences, Faculty of Human Sciences Waseda University Tokorozawa Japan.
Geohealth. 2017 Jun 22;1(4):196-210. doi: 10.1002/2017GH000054. eCollection 2017 Jun.
Predictions of the temporal distribution of vector mosquitoes are an important issue for human health because the response of mosquito populations to climate change could have implications for the risk of vector-borne diseases. To elucidate the effects of climate change on mosquito populations inhabiting temperate regions, we developed a Physiology-based Climate-driven Mosquito Population model for temperate regions. For accurately reproducing the temporal patterns observed in mosquito populations, the key factors were identified by implementing the combinations of factors into the model. We focused on three factors: the effect of diapause, the positive effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity, and the negative effect of rainfall as the washout mortality on aquatic stages. For each model, parameters were calibrated using weekly observation data of a adult population collected in Tokyo, Japan. Based on its likelihood value, the model incorporating diapause, constant carrying capacity, and washout mortality was the best to replicate the observed data. By using the selected model and applying global climate model data, our results indicated that the mosquito population would decrease and adults' active season would be shortened under future climate conditions. We found that incorporating the washout effect in the model settings or not caused a difference in the temporal patterns in the projected mosquito populations. This suggested that water resources in mosquito habitats in temperate regions should be considered for predicting the risk of vector-borne diseases in such regions.
预测媒介蚊虫的时间分布是关乎人类健康的重要问题，因为蚊虫种群对气候变化的响应可能会影响媒介传播疾病的风险。为了阐明气候变化对温带地区蚊虫种群的影响，我们开发了一个基于生理学的温带地区气候驱动蚊虫种群模型。为了准确再现蚊虫种群中观察到的时间模式，通过将各种因素组合纳入模型来确定关键因素。我们关注三个因素：滞育的影响、降雨对幼虫承载能力的积极影响以及降雨作为冲刷死亡率对水生阶段的负面影响。对于每个模型，使用在日本东京收集的成年种群的每周观测数据对参数进行校准。基于其似然值，纳入滞育、恒定承载能力和冲刷死亡率的模型最能复制观测数据。通过使用选定的模型并应用全球气候模型数据，我们的结果表明，在未来气候条件下，蚊虫种群将减少，成虫的活跃季节将缩短。我们发现，在模型设置中纳入或不纳入冲刷效应会导致预测的蚊虫种群时间模式出现差异。这表明，在预测温带地区媒介传播疾病的风险时，应考虑该地区蚊虫栖息地的水资源情况。
