Smith M R, Golden C D, Myers S S
Exposure, Epidemiology and Risk Program, Department of Environmental Health Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Boston Massachusetts USA.
Harvard University Center for the Environment Cambridge Massachusetts USA.
Geohealth. 2017 Aug 2;1(6):248-257. doi: 10.1002/2016GH000018. eCollection 2017 Aug.
Iron deficiency reduces capacity for physical activity, lowers IQ, and increases maternal and child mortality, impacting roughly a billion people worldwide. Recent studies have shown that certain highly consumed crops-C grains (e.g., wheat, rice, and barley), legumes, and maize-have lower iron concentrations of 4-10% when grown under increased atmospheric CO concentrations (550 ppm). We examined diets in 152 countries globally (95.5% of the population) to estimate the percentage of lost dietary iron resulting from anthropogenic CO emissions between now and 2050, specifically among vulnerable age-sex groups: children (1-5 years) and women of childbearing age (15-49 years), holding diets constant. We also cross-referenced these with the current prevalence of anemia to identify most at-risk countries. We found that 1.4 billion children aged 1-5 and women of childbearing age (59% of global total for these groups) live in high-risk countries, where the prevalence of anemia exceeds 20% and modeled loss in dietary iron would be in the most severe tertile (>3.8%). The countries with the highest anemia prevalence also derive their iron from the fewest number of foods, even after excluding countries consuming large amounts of unaccounted wild-harvest foods. The potential risk of increased iron deficiency adds greater incentive for mitigating anthropogenic CO emissions and highlights the need to address anticipated health impacts via improved health delivery systems, dietary behavioral changes, or agricultural innovation. Because these are effects on content rather than yield, it is unlikely that consumers will perceive this health threat and adapt to it without education.
缺铁会降低身体活动能力、降低智商，并增加孕产妇和儿童死亡率，全球约有10亿人受到影响。最近的研究表明，某些高消费作物——C类谷物（如小麦、水稻和大麦）、豆类和玉米——在大气二氧化碳浓度升高（550 ppm）的条件下种植时，铁含量会降低4%-10%。我们研究了全球152个国家（占全球人口的95.5%）的饮食情况，以估计从现在到2050年人为二氧化碳排放导致的膳食铁损失百分比，特别是在易受影响的年龄性别群体中：儿童（1-5岁）和育龄妇女（15-49岁），保持饮食不变。我们还将这些数据与当前贫血患病率进行交叉参考，以确定风险最高的国家。我们发现，14亿1-5岁的儿童和育龄妇女（占这些群体全球总数的59%）生活在高风险国家，这些国家的贫血患病率超过20%，且模拟的膳食铁损失处于最严重的三分位数（>3.8%）。贫血患病率最高的国家，即使排除大量食用未统计的野生采集食物的国家后，其铁的来源食物种类也是最少的。缺铁风险增加的潜在可能性为减少人为二氧化碳排放提供了更大的动力，并凸显了通过改善医疗服务体系、改变饮食行为或农业创新来应对预期健康影响的必要性。由于这些是对含量而非产量的影响，如果没有教育，消费者不太可能意识到这种健康威胁并做出适应。
