Department of Forensic Psychiatry, University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich, Switzerland.
Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Hospital of Psychiatry, Zurich, Switzerland.
Sex Abuse. 2021 Jun;33(4):379-405. doi: 10.1177/1079063220910719. Epub 2020 Mar 14.
Research has identified meaningful subtypes among the heterogeneous population of juveniles who sexually offended (JSO). However, studies that test the validity of risk assessment tools with JSO subtypes are limited. This study compared JSO who offended against a child victim (JSO-C) and JSO who offended against an adolescent/adult victim (JSO-A) with regard to rates of recidivism and the predictive validity of two risk assessment tools (Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism [ERASOR] and Juvenile Sexual Offender Assessment Protocol-II [J-SOAP-II]). Data were analyzed from case files of 185 JSO-C and 297 JSO-A aged 12 to 18 years ( 14.11, 1.44) from a consecutive sample of JSO with contact sexual offenses. A total of 34 (7.1%) juveniles reoffended sexually, with no significant difference between the subtypes. The present results suggest that the ERASOR, particularly the structured professional judgment, and to a lesser degree the J-SOAP-II are better suited to predicting sexual recidivism in JSO-A than in JSO-C.
研究已经在具有异质性的性犯罪青少年人群中确定了有意义的亚类。然而，测试风险评估工具在具有亚类的性犯罪青少年中的有效性的研究是有限的。本研究比较了针对儿童受害者（JSO-C）和针对青少年/成年受害者（JSO-A）实施性犯罪的 JSO 的累犯率以及两种风险评估工具（青少年性犯罪复发风险估计 [ERASOR]和少年性犯罪评估协议-II [J-SOAP-II]）的预测有效性。对来自具有接触性性犯罪的连续样本的 185 名 JSO-C 和 297 名 JSO-A（年龄 12 至 18 岁，14.11，1.44）的案例档案中的数据进行了分析。共有 34 名（7.1%）青少年再次发生性犯罪，两种亚型之间没有显著差异。目前的结果表明，ERASOR，特别是结构化专业判断，以及在较小程度上，J-SOAP-II 更适合预测 JSO-A 中的性累犯，而不是 JSO-C。
